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List of works by Tim Palmer

A Simple Pedagogical Model Linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response

A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations

article by Leon Hermanson et al published July 2009 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

A personal perspective on modelling the climate system

scientific article

A study of reduced numerical precision to make superparameterization more competitive using a hardware emulator in the OpenIFS model

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

scientific article

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts

article

An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century

article

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

article

Atmospheric science. Record-breaking winters and global climate change

scientific article

Bell's conspiracy, Schrödinger's black cat and global invariant sets

scientific article published in August 2015

Benchmark Tests for Numerical Weather Forecasts on Inexact Hardware

Benefits of increased resolution in the ECMWF ensemble system and comparison with poor-man's ensembles

Calibrating Climate Change Time-Slice Projections with Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability

article

Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming

article

Choosing the Optimal Numerical Precision for Data Assimilation in the Presence of Model Error

Climate extremes and the role of dynamics ⬇️

scientific article published on March 20, 2013

Climate forecasting: build high-resolution global climate models

scientific article published on November 2014

Climate‐change modelling at reduced floating‐point precision with stochastic rounding

scientific article published in 2023

Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts

Convective Forcing Fluctuations in a Cloud-Resolving Model: Relevance to the Stochastic Parameterization Problem

article

Correction to “Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming”

article

DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts

DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER)

article

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

article by F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al published 12 October 2011 in Journal of Geophysical Research

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors

Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models – why is it so hard?

article

Discretization of the Bloch sphere, fractal invariant sets and Bell's theorem

scientific article published on 15 April 2020

Does the ECMWF IFS Convection Parameterization with Stochastic Physics Correctly Reproduce Relationships between Convection and the Large-Scale State?

Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

scientific article published in November 2000

Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP

article by F. Vitart et al published 24 August 2007 in Geophysical Research Letters

EC-Earth

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

article

Edward Norton Lorenz

scholarly article published in 2008

Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions

scientific article published in August 2007

Ensemble forecasting

Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

Experimental Non-Violation of the Bell Inequality

scientific article published on 10 May 2018

Extreme rainfall prediction using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system

scientific article published in 1996

Forcing singular vectors and other sensitive model structures

article

Handling uncertainty in science

scientific article published in December 2011

High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations with the ECMWF Model in Project Athena: Experimental Design, Model Climate, and Seasonal Forecast Skill

article

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

article

Human Creativity and Consciousness: Unintended Consequences of the Brain's Extraordinary Energy Efficiency?

scientific article published on 29 February 2020

Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment

Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.

scientific article

Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability

scientific article published on 12 March 2015

Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts

scholarly article

Influence of a stochastic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pacific weather regimes in the ECMWF model

article

Introduction. Stochastic physics and climate modelling

scientific article published in July 2008

Invariant Set Theory: Violating Measurement Independence without Fine Tuning, Conspiracy, Constraints on Free Will or Retrocausality ⬇️

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles.

scientific article

Model error in weather forecasting

scientific article published on 31 December 2001

Modelling: Build imprecise supercomputers

scientific article published on September 2015

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

scientific article published in 1998

More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: a fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators?

scientific article published on June 2014

New geometric concepts in the foundations of physics

scientific article published in August 2015

Oceanic Stochastic Parameterizations in a Seasonal Forecast System ⬇️

article published in 2016

On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe

article

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

scientific article

On the use of inexact, pruned hardware in atmospheric modelling.

scientific article published on June 2014

PREFACE

Parametrization and influence of subgridscale orography in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models

article

Potential improvement to forecasts of two severe storms using targeted observations

article by Martin Leutbecher et al published 1 July 2002 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Predicting multiyear North Atlantic Ocean variability

Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications

scientific article

Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate

scientific article published in January 2002

REPRESENTING MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION

article

Reliability of decadal predictions

article by Susanna Corti et al published November 2012 in Geophysical Research Letters

Reply

Resilience in the developing world benefits everyone

scientific article published in 2020

Revolutionizing Climate Modeling with Project Athena: A Multi-Institutional, International Collaboration

article

Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

scientific article published on 01 July 2018

Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes

scientific article published in Nature

Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models

article

Simulating weather regimes: impact of model resolution and stochastic parameterization

article

Simulating weather regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model

article

Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate

Solving difficult problems creatively: a role for energy optimised deterministic/stochastic hybrid computing

scientific article published on 12 October 2015

Stochastic and Perturbed Parameter Representations of Model Uncertainty in Convection Parameterization*

article

Stochastic modelling and energy-efficient computing for weather and climate prediction

scientific article published on June 2014

Stochastic parametrizations and model uncertainty in the Lorenz '96 system

scientific article published on 15 April 2013

Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

scholarly article by R. Buizza et al published 15 August 2007 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Strategies: Revolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction

article

Systematic Model Error: The Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution versus Improved Stochastic and Deterministic Parameterizations

article

The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation

article

The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models

article

The characteristics of Hessian singular vectors using an advanced data assimilation scheme

The impact of stochastic parametrisations on the representation of the Asian summer monsoon

article

The physics of numerical analysis: a climate modelling case study

scientific article published on 20 January 2020

The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme Northern Hemisphere winter of 2013/2014

article

The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change

scientific article published on 01 December 2019

The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather & climate prediction

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

scholarly article by T. N. Palmer et al published April 2008 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Toward a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

scientific article

Understanding the Anomalously Cold European Winter of 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments

article

Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models

article

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