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List of works by Willy Aspinall

A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal

scientific article published on 07 June 2016

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

A microprocessor-based system for digitizing seismic events from magnetic-tape recordings

A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement

scientific article

Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

scholarly article

Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

preprint

An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets

scholarly article

An objective method for the production of isopach maps and implications for the estimation of tephra deposit volumes and their uncertainties

scientific article published on 17 June 2015

Anatomy of Natural Hazard Analysis: Uncertainty Propagation and Visualization

scholarly article published 27 June 2014

Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis

scientific article published on 31 July 2023

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 1. A new information geodatabase with uncertainty characterizations

scholarly article

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification

scientific article

Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift

scholarly article by Michael Hodge et al published 9 January 2015 in Natural Hazards

Atmospheric Electricity Observations at a Land Station in Fair Weather

Chapter 24 A review of volcanic hazard and risk-assessment praxis at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1997 to 2011

article

Check your legal position before advising others ⬇️

scientific article published on September 14, 2011

Comment on “Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes” by Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer and Michael Bravo [Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:677-689]

Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique

article

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

article

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of the issues

article

Eruption of soufriere volcano on st. Vincent island, 1971-1972.

scientific article published on July 1973

Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

scientific article

Evidence for fluid bodies beneath the Sulphur Springs Geothermal Region, St. Lucia, West Indies

article

Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises

article

Expert elicitation for the judgment of prion disease risk uncertainties

scientific article published in January 2011

Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease

scientific article published on January 2016

Eyewitness accounts of the 25 June 1997 pyroclastic flows and surges at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and implications for disaster mitigation

scholarly article by S. C. Loughlin et al published 2002 in Memoirs of the Geological Society of London

Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery

scientific article

Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a Structured Expert Judgement Approach

scientific article published in 2022

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

scientific article published on 21 May 2019

Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance

scholarly article by Richard J Bretton et al published 19 August 2015 in Journal of applied volcanology

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Magma flow instability and cyclic activity at soufriere hills volcano, montserrat, british west indies

scientific article published on February 1999

Magnitude production imbalances and the present seismogenicity state of the San Andreas Fault system

Microtremor networks and seismic hazard assessment in the UK

Need for a risk-informed tsunami alert system

scientific article published in Nature

Oklahoma's induced seismicity strongly linked to wastewater injection depth

scientific article

On the application of Hidden Markov Model and Bayesian Belief Network to seismic noise at Las Cañadas Caldera, Tenerife, Spain

article

Quantifying uncertainties in the measurement of tephra fall thickness

article published in 2013

Quantitative assessment of volcanic ash hazards for health and infrastructure at Mt. Etna (Italy) by numerical simulation

article

Rejoinder to “Discussion: Response to discussants” by Roger Cooke (Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008;93:775–777)

Reply to "Comment on 'Seismic Hazard Analysis for the U.K.: Sensitivity to Spatial Seismicity Modelling and Ground Motion Prediction Equations' by Katsuichiro Goda, Willy P. Aspinall, and Colin A. Taylor," by Roger M. W. Musson

Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach

article

Santorini unrest 2011–2012: an immediate Bayesian belief network analysis of eruption scenario probabilities for urgent decision support under uncertainty

Scientists at the sharp end in a disaster zone

scientific article published in Nature

Seismic Hazard Analysis for the U.K.: Sensitivity to Spatial Seismicity Modelling and Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Seismicity and earthquake hazard in Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies

scholarly article by J. B. Shepherd & W. P. Aspinall published March 1983 in Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics

Seismicity and seismic intensities in Jamaica, West Indies: A problem in risk assessment

article published in 1980

Seismicity associated with dome growth and collapse at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

scholarly article by A. D. Miller et al published 15 September 1998 in Geophysical Research Letters

Selfridge's Seismograph

Similarities and differences in the historical records of lava dome-building volcanoes: Implications for understanding magmatic processes and eruption forecasting

Soufrière Hills Eruption, Montserrat, 1995-1997: Volcanic earthquake locations and fault plane solutions

scholarly article by W. P. Aspinall et al published 15 September 1998 in Geophysical Research Letters

Strong ground acceleration seismic hazard in Greece and neighboring regions

Temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the Gutenberg–Richter relationship, and the imminence of extreme events

article published in 2008

The 1984 July 19 North Wales earthquake-a lower crustal continental event indicating brittle behaviour at an unusual depth

scholarly article by J. Ansell et al published 1 January 1986 in Geophysical Journal International

The 1995-1998 eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, WI

scholarly article by R. E. A. Robertson et al published 15 May 2000 in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A

The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities

scholarly article by W. P. Aspinall et al published 2002 in Memoirs of the Geological Society of London

The Soufriere Hills Eruption, Montserrat, British West Indies: Introduction to Special Section, Part 1

scholarly article

The eruption of Soufrière volcano, St Vincent April–June 1979

scientific article published in Nature

The last 5000 years of activity at Sete Cidades volcano (São Miguel Island, Azores): Implications for hazard assessment

The “Soufriere” system: PC-based instrumentation for acquiring and processing data from seismograph networks

Two-dimensional analysis of the effect of subsurface anomalies on the free surface response to incident SH-waves

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: An example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

scholarly article by T.E. Sheldrake et al published July 2017 in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Using expert elicitation to characterise long-term tectonic risks to radioactive waste repositories in Japan

Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada

scientific article published on January 2016

Using hidden multi-state Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support

article

Volcanic activity: Frontiers and challenges in forecasting, prediction and risk assessment

scientific article published in 2004

Volcano Statistics Casebook: Tentative evidence from two real-time analyses for an Earth tide influence on volcano-seismic events

article

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

scientific article

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