List of works - Antje Weisheimer

A Simple Pedagogical Model Linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

scientific article

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts

article

An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts

scholarly article by L. H. Baker et al published 8 August 2018 in Geophysical Research Letters

Approximately right or precisely wrong? Meeting report on ‘Chaos and Confidence in Weather Forecasting’

scholarly article by Antje Weisheimer published October 2017 in Weather

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

article

Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution

article

Benchmarking Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability in centennial reanalysis and numerical simulations

scholarly article

Calibrating Climate Change Time-Slice Projections with Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability

article

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

scientific article published in 2020

Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

article

Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming

article

Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

article

Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions

scientific article published in 2022

Correction to “Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming”

article

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

article by F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al published 12 October 2011 in Journal of Geophysical Research

Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models – why is it so hard?

article

Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP

article by F. Vitart et al published 24 August 2007 in Geophysical Research Letters

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

article

Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts

scholarly article by Tess Parker et al published 25 October 2018 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach

article

Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach

Evaluation of Probabilistic Quality and Value of the ENSEMBLES Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER

Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms

article

Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics

article

Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative information

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

article

How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation

scholarly article by Kevin Judd et al published 2007 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

article

Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment

Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.

scientific article

Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability

scientific article published on 12 March 2015

Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts

scholarly article

Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts

article

Impact of stochastic physics on tropical precipitation in the coupled ECMWF model

scholarly article by Aneesh Subramanian et al published January 2017 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Improved radio occultation sounding of the Arctic atmosphere using simulations with a high resolution atmospheric model

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

article

Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010

article

Oceanic Stochastic Parameterizations in a Seasonal Forecast System ⬇️

article published in 2016

On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe

article

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

scientific article

On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models

scholarly article by Antje Weisheimer published June 2001 in Atmospheric Science Letters

OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting

scientific article

OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting

Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015

scientific article published in Scientific Reports

Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications

scientific article

Reliability of decadal predictions

article by Susanna Corti et al published November 2012 in Geophysical Research Letters

Remote control of North Atlantic Oscillation predictability via the stratosphere

Reply

SEAS5: The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms

scholarly article by Daniel J. Befort et al published 14 December 2018 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

scientific article published on 01 July 2018

Stochastic Parameterization: Toward a New View of Weather and Climate Models

Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision

article

Supplementary material to "Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach"

scientific article

The Impact of Tropical Precipitation on Summertime Euro-Atlantic Circulation via a Circumglobal Wave Train

scholarly article by Christopher H. O’Reilly et al published August 2018 in Journal of Climate

The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales

article by Peter A. G. Watson et al published 8 June 2017 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox

article

The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill

article

The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme Northern Hemisphere winter of 2013/2014

article

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

scholarly article by T. N. Palmer et al published April 2008 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century

article

List of works by Antje Weisheimer

A Simple Pedagogical Model Linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts

An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts

Approximately right or precisely wrong? Meeting report on ‘Chaos and Confidence in Weather Forecasting’

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution

Benchmarking Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability in centennial reanalysis and numerical simulations

Calibrating Climate Change Time-Slice Projections with Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming

Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Correction to “Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming”

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models – why is it so hard?

Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts

Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach

Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach

Evaluation of Probabilistic Quality and Value of the ENSEMBLES Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER

Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms

Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics

Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative information

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation

Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment

Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.

Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability

Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts

Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts

Impact of stochastic physics on tropical precipitation in the coupled ECMWF model

Improved radio occultation sounding of the Arctic atmosphere using simulations with a high resolution atmospheric model

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010

Oceanic Stochastic Parameterizations in a Seasonal Forecast System ⬇️

On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models

OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting

OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting

Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015

Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications

Reliability of decadal predictions

Remote control of North Atlantic Oscillation predictability via the stratosphere

Reply

SEAS5: The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms

Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

Stochastic Parameterization: Toward a New View of Weather and Climate Models

Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision

Supplementary material to "Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach"

The Impact of Tropical Precipitation on Summertime Euro-Atlantic Circulation via a Circumglobal Wave Train

The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales

The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox

The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill

The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme Northern Hemisphere winter of 2013/2014

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century