List of works - Francisco Doblas-Reyes

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

A Debiased Ranked Probability Skill Score to Evaluate Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts with Small Ensemble Sizes

article by W. A. Müller et al published May 2005 in Journal of Climate

A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions

scholarly article

A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales

article

Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability

article by Javier García-Serrano et al published 19 October 2014 in Climate Dynamics

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts

article

Adjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard

scientific article published on 01 January 2019

Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales

article

An Evaluation Metric for Intraseasonal Variability and its Application to CMIP3 Twentieth-Century Simulations

An R package for climate forecast verification

An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

scientific article published in 2021

Analyses of sputum specimens for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in a rural hospital in Ethiopia.

scientific article published in May 2010

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

article

Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations

scholarly article

Barriers to Using Climate Information: Challenges in Communicating Probabilistic Forecasts to Decision-Makers

article

Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth

article

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in Coupled Seasonal Hindcasts

article

Building the Next Generation of Climate Modelers: Scale-Aware Physics Parameterization and the “Grey Zone” Challenge

scientific article published in 2018

Calibrated multi-model ensemble summer temperature predictions over Italy

article

Call to Action for Global Access to and Harmonization of Quality Information of Individual Earth Science Datasets

scientific article published in 2021

Change in epidemiology of malaria infections in a rural area in Ethiopia

scientific article

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

scholarly article by Raül Marcos et al published 29 June 2018 in Climate Dynamics

Childhood and adult tuberculosis in a rural hospital in Southeast Ethiopia: a ten-year retrospective study

scientific article

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

scholarly article by Xavier Rodó et al published 17 April 2013 in Climatic Change

Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere

Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment

article

Coordination of Europe’s climate-related knowledge base: Networking and collaborating through interactive events, social media and focussed groups

scientific article published in 2021

DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts

DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER)

article

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

article

Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

article by Danila Volpi et al published 4 June 2016 in Climate Dynamics

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

article by F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al published 12 October 2011 in Journal of Geophysical Research

Decadal prediction of the dominant West African monsoon rainfall modes

scholarly article

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

article

Dependence of the climate prediction skill on spatiotemporal scales: Internal versus radiatively-forced contribution

scholarly article

Detecting Improvements in Forecast Correlation Skill: Statistical Testing and Power Analysis

Detection of high levels of mutations involved in anti-malarial drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax at a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia

scientific article

Diagnosis of cutaneous anthrax in resource-poor settings in West Arsi Province, Ethiopia

scientific article published on 22 December 2017

Different profile of intestinal protozoa and helminthic infections among patients with diarrhoea according to age attending a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on June 2014

Disability profile in leprosy patients' diagnoses in a rural reference leprosy centre in Ethiopia during 1999–2009 ⬇️

scientific article published on January 1, 2011

ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature

article by Timothy Stockdale et al published 12 March 2011 in Climate Dynamics

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

article

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ROTAVIRUS DIARRHEA AMONG CHILDREN AGED LESS THAN 5 YEARS IN RURAL SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA.

scientific article published on May 2015

Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE)

scientific article published on 22 September 2023

Energy budget of the extreme Autumn 2006 in Europe

Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Children and Adolescents with Leprosy Admitted Over 16 Years at a Rural Hospital in Ethiopia: A Retrospective Analysis

scientific article published on 22 June 2017

Epidemiology of animal bites and other potential rabies exposures and anti-rabies vaccine utilization in a rural area in Southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on January 2015

Evaluation of the DEMETER performance for seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

article

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Extreme Daily Rainfall Events and Their Impact on Ensemble Forecasts of the Indian Monsoon

Finding, analysing and solving MPI communication bottlenecks in Earth System models

Forecast Calibration and Combination: A Simple Bayesian Approach for ENSO

article by C. A. S. Coelho et al published April 2004 in Journal of Climate

Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing

Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

article

Gender differential on characteristics and outcome of leprosy patients admitted to a long-term care rural hospital in South-Eastern Ethiopia ⬇️

scientific article published on October 4, 2012

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

scientific article published in 2021

How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?

Hypothesis Testing for Autocorrelated Short Climate Time Series*

Identifying the causes of the poor decadal climate prediction skill over the North Pacific

scientific article

Impact of I/O and Data Management in Ensemble Large Scale Climate Forecasting Using EC-Earth3

Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.

scientific article

Impact of greenhouse gas concentrations on tropical storms in coupled seasonal forecasts

article by Frédéric Vitart & Francisco Doblas-Reyes published January 2007 in Tellus A

Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts

scholarly article

Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe

Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales

scholarly article

Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts

scholarly article

Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts

article

Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010

article

Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

scientific article (publication date: 2013)

Intestinal parasites among children with diarrhea younger than 5 years of age in rural Ethiopia

scientific article published in February 2015

Intestinal parasites in adults admitted to a rural Ethiopian hospital: Relationship to tuberculosis and malaria

scientific article published in January 2006

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

scientific article

Leprosy ulcers in a rural hospital of Ethiopia: pattern of aerobic bacterial isolates and drug sensitivities

scientific article

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe

scientific article

Louse-borne relapsing fever and malaria co-infection in Ethiopia

scientific article

Louse-borne relapsing fever in Ethiopian children: experience of a rural hospital

scientific article published on January 2009

Malaria and severe anemia over eight years at Gambo Rural Hospital, southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on 13 May 2017

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles.

scientific article

Mammary, testicular and adnexal tuberculosis diagnosed by histology in a rural hospital in Southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on November 2012

Management and transference of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis in a rural hospital in Southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on 16 March 2013

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

article

Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts

article

Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

article by Louis-Philippe Caron et al published 30 April 2013 in Climate Dynamics

Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential

article by Louis-Philippe Caron et al published 14 April 2015 in Geophysical Research Letters

Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies

scholarly article

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

scientific article published on 29 July 2020

Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution

scientific article published on 15 June 2020

On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast

article by Javier García-Serrano & F. J. Doblas-Reyes published 12 June 2012 in Climate Dynamics

On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe

article

Optimizing domain decomposition in an ocean model: the case of NEMO

Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model

article

Ozone signatures of climate patterns over the Euro-Atlantic sector in the spring

article

PREVALENCE OF HYPERTENSION, ANEMIA, ASYMPTOMATIC URINARY TRACT INFECTION, SYPHILIS, HIV AND HEPATITIS B VIRUS INFECTION AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN ATTENDING AN ANTENATAL CLINIC AT A RURAL HOSPITAL IN SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

scientific article published in September 2016

Polar Lower-Latitude Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction

Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere from CHFP models

Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5o C

article

Prevalence and characteristics of neuropathic pain in leprosy patients treated years ago.

scientific article

Prevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV, HTLV and Treponema pallidum among patients attending a rural hospital in Southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on 30 December 2011

Prevalence of positive HIV, HBV, HCV and treponemal tests in blood donors in a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on 6 February 2016

Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications

scientific article

Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

article by Virginie Guemas et al published 4 June 2014 in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Quality Management Framework for Climate Datasets

scientific article published in 2022

REPRESENTING MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION

article

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

article

Recommendations for Future Research Priorities for Climate Modeling and Climate Services

scientific article published in 2021

Record Low Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent in March 2015

Reliability of decadal predictions

article by Susanna Corti et al published November 2012 in Geophysical Research Letters

Reliability of regional climate model trends

article

Replicability of the EC-Earth3 Earth System Model under a change in computing environment

preprint

Replicability of the EC-Earth3 Earth system model under a change in computing environment

scholarly article

Reply

Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade

article

Revisiting the ENSO Teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic

article published in 2017

Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption

Screening for tuberculosis in family and household contacts in a rural area in Ethiopia over a 20-month period

scientific article published on 30 October 2013

Seasonal Climate Prediction: A New Source of Information for the Management of Wind Energy Resources

article published in 2017

Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects

Seasonal forecast quality of the West African monsoon rainfall regimes by multiple forecast systems

Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations

article by H. Du et al published 20 January 2012 in Climate Dynamics

Seroprevalence of HIV-1, HBV, HTLV-1 and Treponema pallidum among pregnant women in a rural hospital in Southern Ethiopia ⬇️

scientific article published on February 16, 2011

Seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus among blood donors in a rural Ethiopian hospital

scientific article

Sex differences and HIV status of tuberculosis in adults at a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia: an 18-year retrospective cross-sectional study

scientific article published on 01 June 2020

Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions.

scientific article published on 13 July 2018

Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe

Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions

Stochastic atmospheric perturbations in the EC-Earth3 global coupled model: impact of SPPT on seasonal forecast quality

article

Storm track signature in total ozone during northern hemisphere winter

article

Subseasonal predictions for climate services, a recipe for operational implementation

scientific article published in 2023

Summer temperature response to extreme soil water conditions in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime

scientific article published in 2021

Supplementary material to "The representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking in current global climate models"

scientific article published on 8 January 2020

Surgical lymph node biopsies in a rural Ethiopian hospital: histopathologic diagnoses and clinical characteristics

scientific article published on April 1, 2008

Tetanus in a rural Ethiopian hospital

scientific article published in April 2008

The 2014 High Record of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

The Biggest Unknowns Related to Decadal Prediction: What 50 Experts Think Are the 5 Major Knowledge Gaps

scientific article

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

article by George J. Boer et al published 25 October 2016 in Geoscientific Model Development

The Indian Ocean: The Region of Highest Skill Worldwide in Decadal Climate Prediction*

article by Virginie Guemas et al published February 2013 in Journal of Climate

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

scientific article published in 2022

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures on the Cold 2015 February Over North America

The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill

article by Randal D. Koster et al published October 2011 in Journal of Hydrometeorology

The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes

article

The burden of leprosy in children and adolescents in rural southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on 6 December 2013

The representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking in current global climate models

scientific article published on 23 March 2020

The representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking in current global climate models

scientific article published on 8 January 2020

The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

article

Tinea capitis in schoolchildren in a rural area in southern Ethiopia

scientific article published on 29 December 2014

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

scholarly article by T. N. Palmer et al published April 2008 in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

scientific article published on 15 April 2019

Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?

scholarly article by Dave MacLeod et al published 12 July 2017 in Meteorological Applications

Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison

Uncertainty propagation in observational references to climate model scales

scholarly article by Omar Bellprat et al published December 2017 in Remote Sensing of Environment

Uncertainty: Lessons Learned for Climate Services ⬇️

Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill

article

Using climate models to estimate the quality of global observational data sets

scientific article

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

article

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

What have we learnt from EUPORIAS climate service prototypes?

scholarly article by Carlo Buontempo et al published January 2018 in Climate Services

List of works by Francisco Doblas-Reyes

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

A Debiased Ranked Probability Skill Score to Evaluate Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts with Small Ensemble Sizes

A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions

A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales

Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts

Adjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard

Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales

An Evaluation Metric for Intraseasonal Variability and its Application to CMIP3 Twentieth-Century Simulations

An R package for climate forecast verification

An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

Analyses of sputum specimens for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in a rural hospital in Ethiopia.

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations

Barriers to Using Climate Information: Challenges in Communicating Probabilistic Forecasts to Decision-Makers

Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-Earth

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in Coupled Seasonal Hindcasts

Building the Next Generation of Climate Modelers: Scale-Aware Physics Parameterization and the “Grey Zone” Challenge

Calibrated multi-model ensemble summer temperature predictions over Italy

Call to Action for Global Access to and Harmonization of Quality Information of Individual Earth Science Datasets

Change in epidemiology of malaria infections in a rural area in Ethiopia

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Childhood and adult tuberculosis in a rural hospital in Southeast Ethiopia: a ten-year retrospective study

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere

Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment

Coordination of Europe’s climate-related knowledge base: Networking and collaborating through interactive events, social media and focussed groups

DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts

DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER)

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

Decadal prediction of the dominant West African monsoon rainfall modes

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

Dependence of the climate prediction skill on spatiotemporal scales: Internal versus radiatively-forced contribution

Detecting Improvements in Forecast Correlation Skill: Statistical Testing and Power Analysis

Detection of high levels of mutations involved in anti-malarial drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax at a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia

Diagnosis of cutaneous anthrax in resource-poor settings in West Arsi Province, Ethiopia

Different profile of intestinal protozoa and helminthic infections among patients with diarrhoea according to age attending a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia

Disability profile in leprosy patients' diagnoses in a rural reference leprosy centre in Ethiopia during 1999–2009 ⬇️

ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ROTAVIRUS DIARRHEA AMONG CHILDREN AGED LESS THAN 5 YEARS IN RURAL SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA.

Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE)

Energy budget of the extreme Autumn 2006 in Europe

Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Children and Adolescents with Leprosy Admitted Over 16 Years at a Rural Hospital in Ethiopia: A Retrospective Analysis

Epidemiology of animal bites and other potential rabies exposures and anti-rabies vaccine utilization in a rural area in Southern Ethiopia

Evaluation of the DEMETER performance for seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Extreme Daily Rainfall Events and Their Impact on Ensemble Forecasts of the Indian Monsoon

Finding, analysing and solving MPI communication bottlenecks in Earth System models

Forecast Calibration and Combination: A Simple Bayesian Approach for ENSO

Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing

Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

Gender differential on characteristics and outcome of leprosy patients admitted to a long-term care rural hospital in South-Eastern Ethiopia ⬇️

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?

Hypothesis Testing for Autocorrelated Short Climate Time Series*

Identifying the causes of the poor decadal climate prediction skill over the North Pacific

Impact of I/O and Data Management in Ensemble Large Scale Climate Forecasting Using EC-Earth3

Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.

Impact of greenhouse gas concentrations on tropical storms in coupled seasonal forecasts

Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts

Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe

Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales

Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts

Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts

Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010

Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

Intestinal parasites among children with diarrhea younger than 5 years of age in rural Ethiopia

Intestinal parasites in adults admitted to a rural Ethiopian hospital: Relationship to tuberculosis and malaria

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

Leprosy ulcers in a rural hospital of Ethiopia: pattern of aerobic bacterial isolates and drug sensitivities

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe

Louse-borne relapsing fever and malaria co-infection in Ethiopia

Louse-borne relapsing fever in Ethiopian children: experience of a rural hospital