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List of works by Mercedes Pascual

A general model for food web structure

scientific article published in May 2008

A stochastic model for ecological systems with strong nonlinear response to environmental drivers: application to two water-borne diseases

scientific article

Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia

scientific article

An immune memory–structured SIS epidemiological model for hyperdiverse pathogens

scientific article published in November 2023

Anticipating critical transitions

scientific article published on October 2012

Author Correction: Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics

correction of a scholarly article

Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence

scientific article published on 26 May 2023

Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks

scientific article published in February 2007

Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus

scientific article

Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence

scientific article

Cholera and shigellosis: different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability

scientific article

Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned ⬇️

scientific article

Climate and Population Immunity in Malaria Dynamics: Harnessing Information from Endemicity Gradients

scientific article

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

scholarly article by Xavier Rodó et al published 17 April 2013 in Climatic Change

Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease

scientific article (publication date: August 2006)

Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation

scientific article

Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity

scientific article

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity.

scientific article published on 27 November 2016

Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies

scientific article

Comment on "A keystone mutualism drives pattern in a power function".

scientific article published in September 2006

Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases

scientific article

Competition for hosts modulates vast antigenic diversity to generate persistent strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum

article

Competition for hosts modulates vast antigenic diversity to generate persistent strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum

scientific article published on 24 June 2019

Computational ecology: from the complex to the simple and back

scientific article

Consequences of host heterogeneity, epitope immunodominance, and immune breadth for strain competition ⬇️

scientific article published on November 18, 2010

Conservation of single amino-acid polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 and association with severe pathophysiology

Correction: Climate Cycles and Forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a Nonstationary Vector-Borne Disease.

scientific article published on 27 March 2007

Critical transitions in malaria transmission models are consistently generated by superinfection

article

Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems

scientific article

Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon.

scientific article published on 15 November 2019

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

scientific article published on 28 March 2016

Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera

scientific article

Do rising temperatures matter?

scientific article published in April 2009

ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?

scientific article

Ecological Networks over the Edge: Hypergraph Trait-Mediated Indirect Interaction (TMII) Structure

scientific article published on 25 February 2016

Ecological Science and Sustainability for the 21st Century

scientific article published in 2005

Ecological factors driving the long-term evolution of influenza's host range

scientific article published on 5 May 2010

Ecological science and sustainability for the 21st century

article

Ecology. Ecology for a crowded planet

scientific article

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

scientific article published on 15 January 2014

Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland ⬇️

scientific article published on November 10, 2010

Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans

scientific article

Evidence of strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum var gene repertoires in children from Gabon, West Africa

scientific article published in May 2017

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

article

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2).

scientific article

Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics

scientific article published on 22 February 2022

Food web models: a plea for groups.

scientific article

Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India

scientific article

Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems

scientific article published on 10 September 2015

Functional links and robustness in food webs

scientific article

Global malaria maps and climate change: a focus on East African highlands

scientific article published on 26 August 2011

Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2)

scientific article published in May 2010

Googling food webs: can an eigenvector measure species' importance for coextinctions?

scientific article

Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity ⬇️

scientific article published on January 23, 2012

Homology blocks of Plasmodium falciparum var genes and clinically distinct forms of severe malaria in a local population

scientific article

Hyperinfectivity in cholera: a new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?

scientific article published on 27 June 2006

Identifying functional groups among the diverse, recombining antigenic var genes of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum from a local community in Ghana.

scientific article published on 13 June 2018

Impacts of climate change on public health in India: future research directions

scientific article

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics.

scientific article

Incidence Prediction for the 2017-2018 Influenza Season in the United States with an Evolution-informed Model

scientific article published on 17 January 2018

Influenza evolution navigates stability valleys ⬇️

scientific article published on May 14, 2013

Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development

scientific article

Malaria control under unstable dynamics: reactive vs. climate-based strategies

scientific article

Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited

scientific article

Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets

scientific article

Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming

scientific article published on 10 March 2021

Mosquito-borne transmission in urban landscapes: the missing link between vector abundance and human density

article

Network structure, predator–prey modules, and stability in large food webs

scholarly article by Stefano Allesina & Mercedes Pascual published 2 October 2007 in Theoretical Ecology

Networks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum

Networks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum.

scientific article published on 8 May 2018

Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links

scientific article published on June 2008

Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change

scholarly article by Katia Koelle et al published 7 May 2005 in Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasions by altering fitness surface ⬇️

scientific article published in October 2006

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India

scientific article

Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum

scientific article

Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability

scientific article

Predicting endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics

article

Presurgical assessment of the tumor burden of familial medullary thyroid carcinoma by calcitonin testing

scientific article published on November 2002

Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions

scientific article published in November 2003

Random, top-down, or bottom-up coexistence of parasites: malaria population dynamics in multi-parasitic settings

scientific article published in September 2009

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics

scientific article

Robust scaling in ecosystems and the meltdown of patch size distributions before extinction

scientific article published on 11 November 2010

Seasonal Variation in the Epidemiology of Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infections across Two Catchment Areas in Bongo District, Ghana

scientific article published in July 2017

Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases

scientific article

Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases

scientific article published in April 2006

Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

Seasonality in the migration and establishment of H3N2 Influenza lineages with epidemic growth and decline

scientific article

Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics

scientific article published in November 2006

Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland

scientific article published in January 2008

Signatures of competition and strain structure within the major blood-stage antigen of Plasmodium falciparum in a local community in Ghana

scientific article published in March 2018

Simple models for complex systems: exploiting the relationship between local and global densities

scientific article published on January 2011

Skeletons, noise and population growth: the end of an old debate?

scientific article

Social exclusion modifies climate and deforestation impacts on a vector-borne disease

scientific article

Sources and sinks: revisiting the criteria for identifying reservoirs for American cutaneous leishmaniasis

scientific article published on 24 May 2007

Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera

scientific article

Spatial guilds in the Serengeti food web revealed by a Bayesian group model

scientific article (publication date: December 2011)

Stochastic amplification in epidemics

scientific article published on June 2007

Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies

scientific article

Synergistic and antagonistic interactions between bednets and vaccines in the control of malaria

scientific article

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

scientific article published in December 2015

The Potential Elimination of Plasmodium vivax Malaria by Relapse Treatment: Insights from a Transmission Model and Surveillance Data from NW India ⬇️

scientific article published on January 10, 2013

The assembly, collapse and restoration of food webs

scientific article

The impact of indoor residual spraying on Plasmodium falciparum microsatellite variation in an area of high seasonal malaria transmission in Ghana, West Africa

scientific article published on 16 July 2021

The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites

scientific article

The multilayer nature of ecological networks ⬇️

scientific article published on 23 March 2017

The network structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics of CRISPR-induced immune diversification

scientific article published on 19 October 2020

The rise and fall of malaria under land-use change in frontier regions

scholarly article by Andres Baeza et al published 20 March 2017 in Nature Ecology and Evolution

The rising tide of ocean diseases: unsolved problems and research priorities

scientific article published in 2004

The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza

scientific article

Transmission Intensity and Drug Resistance in Malaria Population Dynamics: Implications for Climate Change ⬇️

scientific article published on October 26, 2010

Underestimating malaria risk under variable temperatures

scientific article published on 12 August 2009

Understanding Shifts in Wildfire Regimes as Emergent Threshold Phenomena ⬇️

scientific article published on October 28, 2011

Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: Influenza as a case study ⬇️

scientific article published on June 2, 2009

Understanding the role of parasites in food webs using the group model

scientific article

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