List of works - Joeri Rogelj

2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C

article

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

scientific article published in 2021

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

scientific article published in 2023

A new framework for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

scientific article

A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space

scientific article

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

scientific article published in September 2019

A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research

scientific article

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

scientific article published on March 2017

A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target

scholarly article by Reto Knutti et al published 7 December 2015 in Nature Geoscience

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

scientific article published in August 2024

Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways

article published in 2014

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

scientific article

Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts—a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

scientific article

Author Correction: Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C ⬇️

article

Author Correction: Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

scientific article published on 01 April 2020

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

article

CLIMATE POLICY. Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?

scientific article

COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge

scientific article

COVID-19 recovery funds dwarf clean energy investment needs

scientific article published on 01 October 2020

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

scientific article published in 2021

Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways

Carbon prices across countries

scientific article

Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled

scientific article published in 2022

Changes to Carbon Isotopes in Atmospheric CO2 Over the Industrial Era and Into the Future

scientific article published on 15 November 2020

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

scientific article

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

scientific article published in May 2018

Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

scientific article published in 2021

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

scientific article published on 20 February 2018

Connecting the sustainable development goals by their energy inter-linkages ⬇️

article

Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

scientific article published in April 2010

Corrigendum: Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 075003)

scholarly article published in Environmental Research Letters

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

scholarly article by Carl-Friedrich Schleussner published in 2020

Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming ⬇️

scientific article published in Nature Communications

Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module

article published in 2011

Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

article

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

article

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

article

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 °C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

article

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

scientific article

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

scientific article

Earth science: A holistic approach to climate targets

scientific article published on 03 July 2013

Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts

scientific article published in 2021

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C ⬇️

article

Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit

article

Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time

scientific article published on 01 March 2020

Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios

scientific article

Energy system changes in 1.5 °C, well below 2 °C and 2 °C scenarios

scientific article

Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

article

Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Erratum: Corrigendum: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

article

Erratum: Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

scholarly article published in Nature Climate Change

Erratum: Corrigendum: Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

scientific article published in Nature

Erratum: Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

scientific article published on 14 August 2020

Estimated climate impact of the end of agriculture as the primary food production system

scientific article

Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

scientific article published in July 2019

Geosciences after Paris

scientific article

Getting It Right Matters: Temperature Goal Interpretations in Geoscience Research

article

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

scientific article published in May 2018

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

article

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

article

Greenhouse gas metrics for net zero targets in science and policy

scientific article

Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C

Impact of short-lived non-CO2mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

article

Impacts of COVID-19 induced energy demand changes on emissions and mitigation challenges 

scientific article

Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement ⬇️

scientific article published in May 2018

Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy

Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5 °C climate goal

scholarly article by Shinichiro Fujimori et al published 1 July 2018 in Environmental Research Letters

Inconsistencies when applying novel metrics for emissions accounting to the Paris agreement

scientific article

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

scientific article published in 2023

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

scientific article published on 5 June 2024

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;

scientific article published in 2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>

scientific article

Key technological enablers for ambitious climate goals: insights from the IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5 °C

scientific article

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Long-term economic benefits of stabilizing warming without overshoot – the ENGAGE model intercomparison

scientific article

Mapping the climate change challenge

scholarly article by Stéphane Hallegatte et al published July 2016 in Nature Climate Change

Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals

Mitigation scenarios must cater to new users

Modeling deep decarbonization: Robust energy policy and climate action

scientific article

Modelling the multi-scaled nature of pest outbreaks

scientific article

Modifying emission scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for Covid-MIP

scientific article

Modifying emissions data and projections to incorporate the effects of lockdown in climate modelling

scientific article

Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP

scientific article

National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies

National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios

scientific article

Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis

Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects

Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds

Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

scientific article

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

scientific article published on 9 October 2024

Overshooting warming targets – temperature reversibility and implications for impacts, adaptation needs and near-term mitigation

scientific article

PRIMAP – Potsdam Real-Time Integrated Model for the probabilistic assessment of emission paths

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

scientific article

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

scientific article

Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?

scientific article published in May 2018

Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

article published in 2014

Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

article

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

scientific article

Publisher Correction: The cost of mitigation revisited

correction of a scholarly article

Questions of bias in climate models

article

Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

scientific article

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

scientific article published in 2020

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

scientific article published in 2021

Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

Reply to Comment on: ‘Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level’

scientific article

Reply to ‘Interpretations of the Paris climate target’ ⬇️

Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

article by Joeri Rogelj et al published 5 March 2018 in Nature Climate Change

Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal

article

Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy

scientific article

Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research

scientific article

Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research

Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

article

Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC ⬇️

special climate change report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Stranded on a low-carbon planet: Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants

article

The Antarctic Peninsula Under a 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario

scientific article

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

scientific article

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

scientific article published in 2022

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

The UN's 'Sustainable Energy for All' initiative is compatible with a warming limit of 2 °C

article

The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

scientific article

The cost of mitigation revisited

scientific article published in 2021

The cumulative carbon budget and its implications

scientific article

The kids aren't alright

scientific article

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

scientific article published in Nature

The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

The world's biggest gamble

Towards high-quality net-zero targets

scientific article

Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability

scientific article

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

scientific article

Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level

scientific article

Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

article

List of works by Joeri Rogelj

2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

A new framework for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts—a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

Author Correction: Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C ⬇️

Author Correction: Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

CLIMATE POLICY. Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?

COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge

COVID-19 recovery funds dwarf clean energy investment needs

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways

Carbon prices across countries

Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled

Changes to Carbon Isotopes in Atmospheric CO2 Over the Industrial Era and Into the Future

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

Connecting the sustainable development goals by their energy inter-linkages ⬇️

Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

Corrigendum: Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 075003)

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming ⬇️

Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module

Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 °C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

Earth science: A holistic approach to climate targets

Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C ⬇️

Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit

Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time

Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios

Energy system changes in 1.5 °C, well below 2 °C and 2 °C scenarios

Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Erratum: Corrigendum: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

Erratum: Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Erratum: Corrigendum: Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

Erratum: Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Estimated climate impact of the end of agriculture as the primary food production system

Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

Geosciences after Paris

Getting It Right Matters: Temperature Goal Interpretations in Geoscience Research

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

Greenhouse gas metrics for net zero targets in science and policy

Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C

Impact of short-lived non-CO2mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

Impacts of COVID-19 induced energy demand changes on emissions and mitigation challenges&#160;

Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement ⬇️

Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy

Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5 °C climate goal

Inconsistencies when applying novel metrics for emissions accounting to the Paris agreement

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>

Key technological enablers for ambitious climate goals: insights from the IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5 °C

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Energy system changes in 1.5 °C, well below 2 °C and 2 °C scenarios

Impacts of COVID-19 induced energy demand changes on emissions and mitigation challenges

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>

Overshooting warming targets – temperature reversibility and implications for impacts, adaptation needs and near-term mitigation