List of works by Richard D. Riley

A framework for meta-analysis of prediction model studies with binary and time-to-event outcomes

scientific article published on 23 July 2018

A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance

scientific article published on 5 January 2017

A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies

scientific article published on 30 January 2019

A matrix-based method of moments for fitting multivariate network meta-analysis models with multiple outcomes and random inconsistency effects

scientific article published on 14 August 2017

A matrix-based method of moments for fitting the multivariate random effects model for meta-analysis and meta-regression

scientific article

A multivariate meta-analysis approach for reducing the impact of outcome reporting bias in systematic reviews

scientific article published on 25 April 2012

A note on estimating the Cox-Snell R<sup>2</sup> from a reported C statistic (AUROC) to inform sample size calculations for developing a prediction model with a binary outcome

scientific article published on 07 December 2020

A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation

scientific article published on 19 July 2017

A refined method for multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression

scientific article published on 29 August 2013

A study protocol for the development and internal validation of a multivariable prognostic model to determine lower extremity muscle injury risk in elite football (soccer) players, with further exploration of prognostic factors

scientific article published on 19 September 2019

A systematic review of breast cancer incidence risk prediction models with meta-analysis of their performance

scientific article published on 22 October 2011

A systematic review of molecular and biological tumor markers in neuroblastoma

scientific article published on January 2004

A systematic review of p53 as a prognostic factor of survival in squamous cell carcinoma of the four main anatomical subsites of the head and neck

scientific article published on February 2010

A tutorial on individualized treatment effect prediction from randomized trials with a binary endpoint

scientific article published in 2021

An alternative model for bivariate random-effects meta-analysis when the within-study correlations are unknown

scientific article published on 11 July 2007

Assessment of publication bias, selection bias, and unavailable data in meta-analyses using individual participant data: a database survey

scientific article

Association and prediction of amniotic fluid measurements for adverse pregnancy outcome: systematic review and meta-analysis

scientific article published on 07 February 2014

Association of maternal serum PAPP-A levels, nuchal translucency and crown-rump length in first trimester with adverse pregnancy outcomes: retrospective cohort study

scientific article

Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of correlated effects: Impact of the prior distributions on the between-study correlation, borrowing of strength, and joint inferences

scientific article

Bayesian meta-analytical methods to incorporate multiple surrogate endpoints in drug development process

scientific article

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and the estimation of between-study correlation

scientific article

Borrowing of strength and study weights in multivariate and network meta-analysis

scientific article published on 6 November 2015

COVID-19 prediction models should adhere to methodological and reporting standards

scientific article published on 23 July 2020

Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model

scientific article published on 18 March 2020

Challenges in the development of prognostic models utilising clinical trials data.

scientific article published on 29 November 2013

Clinical prediction models to predict the risk of multiple binary outcomes: a comparison of approaches

scientific article published on 26 October 2020

Cohort Profile: The Birmingham Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Cohort Study.

scientific article

Commentary: like it and lump it? Meta-analysis using individual participant data

scientific article

Conducting a critical interpretive synthesis of the literature on access to healthcare by vulnerable groups

scientific article

Correction to: Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: Part II-binary and time-to-event outcomes by Riley RD, Snell KI, Ensor J, et al

scientific article published on 29 October 2019

Deriving percentage study weights in multi-parameter meta-analysis models: with application to meta-regression, network meta-analysis and one-stage individual participant data models.

scientific article

Detecting small-study effects and funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analysis of survival data: A comparison of new and existing tests

scientific article published on 3 October 2017

Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis

scientific article

Developing clinical prediction models when adhering to minimum sample size recommendations: The importance of quantifying bootstrap variability in tuning parameters and predictive performance

scientific article published on 08 October 2021

Development and validation of Prediction models for Risks of complications in Early-onset Pre-eclampsia (PREP): a prospective cohort study

scientific article published on April 2017

Development and validation of a prediction model for fat mass in children and adolescents: meta-analysis using individual participant data

scientific article published on 24 July 2019

Development and validation of prediction models for risk of adverse outcomes in women with early-onset pre-eclampsia: protocol of the prospective cohort PREP study

scientific article published on 20 February 2017

Development and validation of prediction models to estimate risk of primary total hip and knee replacements using data from the UK: two prospective open cohorts using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

scientific article published on 18 October 2018

Development and validation of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in postpartum women: multinational cohort study

scientific article published on 05 December 2016

Does vitamin D supplementation improve bone density in vitamin D-deficient children? Protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis

scientific article

Doug Altman: Driving critical appraisal and improvements in the quality of methodological and medical research

scientific article published on 08 July 2020

Early Clinical Features in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Can They Be Used to Achieve Earlier Diagnosis? A Risk Prediction Model

scientific article published on 2 September 2016

Effects of antenatal diet and physical activity on maternal and fetal outcomes: individual patient data meta-analysis and health economic evaluation

scientific article published on August 2017

Effects of race and ethnicity on perinatal outcomes in high-income and upper-middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of 2 198 655 pregnancies

scientific article published in December 2022

Empirical comparison of univariate and multivariate meta-analyses in Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth reviews with multiple binary outcomes

scientific article published on 12 August 2019

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

scientific article published on 30 March 2017

Erratum to: Study protocol: differential effects of diet and physical activity based interventions in pregnancy on maternal and fetal outcomes: individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis and health economic evaluation

scientific article published on 30 July 2015

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study

scholarly article published on 15 January 2024

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 3): calculating the sample size required for an external validation study

scholarly article

Evidence synthesis combining individual patient data and aggregate data: a systematic review identified current practice and possible methods

scientific article

Evidence synthesis in prognosis research

scientific article published on 11 July 2019

Excision repair cross-complementation group 1 (ERCC1) status and lung cancer outcomes: a meta-analysis of published studies and recommendations.

scientific article

Explicit inclusion of treatment in prognostic modeling was recommended in observational and randomized settings

scientific article published on April 2016

External validation of clinical prediction models using big datasets from e-health records or IPD meta-analysis: opportunities and challenges

scientific article published on 22 June 2016

External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis

scientific article published on 02 November 2020

External validation, update and development of prediction models for pre-eclampsia using an Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis: the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complication Network (IPPIC pre-eclampsia) protocol

scientific article published on 03 October 2017

Factors affecting local regrowth after watch and wait for patients with a clinical complete response following chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer (InterCoRe consortium): an individual participant data meta-analysis

scientific article published on 12 October 2018

Feasibility of establishing a central repository for the individual participant data from research studies

scientific article

First-trimester ultrasound measurements and maternal serum biomarkers as prognostic factors in monochorionic twins: a cohort study

Flaws in the development and validation of a covid-19 prediction model

scientific article published on 16 September 2020

GRADE Guidelines 28: Use of GRADE for the assessment of evidence about prognostic factors: rating certainty in identification of groups of patients with different absolute risks

scientific article published on 23 January 2020

Guidance for deriving and presenting percentage study weights in meta-analysis of test accuracy studies.

scientific article published on 7 November 2017

Guide to presenting clinical prediction models for use in clinical settings

scientific article published on 17 April 2019

Implementing systematic reviews of prognosis studies in Cochrane

scientific article published on 01 October 2018

Improving the transparency of prognosis research: the role of reporting, data sharing, registration, and protocols

scientific article

Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-analyses of Randomised Controlled Trials: Guidance on Their Use

scientific article (publication date: July 2015)

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses of diagnostic and prognostic modeling studies: guidance on their use.

scientific article

Individual participant data meta-analyses compared with meta-analyses based on aggregate data

scientific article

Individual participant data meta-analyses compared with meta-analyses based on aggregate data

Individual participant data meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: A comparison of approaches for specifying and estimating one-stage models

scientific article published on 20 December 2018

Individual participant data meta-analysis of intervention studies with time-to-event outcomes: A review of the methodology and an applied example

scientific article published on 06 February 2020

Individual participant data meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies: state of the art?

scientific article

Individual participant data meta-analysis to examine interactions between treatment effect and participant-level covariates: Statistical recommendations for conduct and planning

scientific article published on 30 April 2020

Individual participant data validation of the PICNICC prediction model for febrile neutropenia

scientific article published on 05 November 2019

Individual patient data meta-analysis of survival data using Poisson regression models

scientific article

Individual recovery expectations and prognosis of outcomes in non-specific low back pain: prognostic factor exemplar review

scientific article

Individual recovery expectations and prognosis of outcomes in non-specific low back pain: prognostic factor review

scientific article published on 25 November 2019

Interpretation of random effects meta-analyses.

scientific article published on 10 February 2011

Is the first urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) in women with suspected preeclampsia a prognostic factor for maternal and neonatal adverse outcome? A retrospective cohort study.

scientific article

Joint synthesis of multiple correlated outcomes in networks of interventions.

scientific article published on 2 July 2014

Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported

scientific article published on 18 May 2018

Measuring the statistical validity of summary meta-analysis and meta-regression results for use in clinical practice

scientific article published on 15 June 2017

Meta-analysis of a binary outcome using individual participant data and aggregate data

scientific article

Meta-analysis of a continuous outcome combining individual patient data and aggregate data: a method based on simulated individual patient data

scientific article

Meta-analysis of continuous outcomes combining individual patient data and aggregate data

scientific article

Meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: using pseudo IPD created from aggregate data to adjust for baseline imbalance and assess treatment-by-baseline modification

scientific article published on 08 July 2020

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies in mental health

scientific article

Meta-analysis of diagnostic test studies using individual patient data and aggregate data

scientific article

Meta-analysis of genetic studies using Mendelian randomization--a multivariate approach

scientific article published in July 2005

Meta-analysis of individual participant data: rationale, conduct, and reporting

scientific article

Meta-analysis of individual patient data versus aggregate data from longitudinal clinical trials

scientific article

Meta-analysis of prediction model performance across multiple studies: Which scale helps ensure between-study normality for the C-statistic and calibration measures?

scientific article published on January 2017

Meta-analysis of randomised trials with a continuous outcome according to baseline imbalance and availability of individual participant data

scientific article

Meta-analysis of randomized phase II trials to inform subsequent phase III decisions

scientific article

Meta-analysis of test accuracy studies: an exploratory method for investigating the impact of missing thresholds

scientific article published on 04 February 2015

Meta-analysis using individual participant data: one-stage and two-stage approaches, and why they may differ

scientific article

Methodological issues and recommendations for systematic reviews of prognostic studies: an example from cardiovascular disease

scientific article

Methodology over metrics: Current scientific standards are a disservice to patients and society

scientific article

Methods and reporting of systematic reviews of comparative accuracy were deficient: a methodological survey and proposed guidance

scientific article published on 14 December 2019

Methods for Evaluating Medical Tests and Biomarkers

article by Gowri Gopalakrishna et al published February 2017 in Diagnostic and Prognostic Research

Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II - binary and time-to-event outcomes

scientific article published on 24 October 2018

Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: Part I - Continuous outcomes

article

Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a continuous outcome

scientific article published on 04 November 2020

Model-based evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of systematic case-finding for COPD in primary care

scientific article published on 08 July 2019

Moderators of the effect of therapeutic exercise for knee and hip osteoarthritis: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival models using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with application to recurrent events and individual participant data meta-analysis

scientific article

Multivariate and network meta-analysis of multiple outcomes and multiple treatments: rationale, concepts, and examples

scientific article published on 13 September 2017

Multivariate meta-analysis helps examine the impact of outcome reporting bias in Cochrane rheumatoid arthritis reviews

scientific article

Multivariate meta-analysis of individual participant data helped externally validate the performance and implementation of a prediction model.

scientific article published on 16 May 2015

Multivariate meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies with multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement

scientific article published on 29 April 2015

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data.

scientific article

Multivariate meta-analysis: potential and promise

scientific article

One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models for continuous and binary outcomes: Comparison of treatment coding options and estimation methods

scientific article published on 11 May 2020

One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models: estimation of treatment-covariate interactions must avoid ecological bias by separating out within-trial and across-trial information

scientific article

PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration

article

PROBAST: A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies

article

Penalisation and shrinkage methods produced unreliable clinical prediction models especially when sample size was small

scientific article published on 08 December 2020

Performance of methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy with few studies or sparse data

scientific article

Periodic Health Examination and Injury Prediction in Professional Football (Soccer): Theoretically, the Prognosis is Good

scientific article published on 01 November 2018

Persistent sex disparities in clinical outcomes with percutaneous coronary intervention: Insights from 6.6 million PCI procedures in the United States

scientific article published in PLoS ONE

Predicting and preventing relapse of depression in primary care

scientific article published on 30 January 2020

Predicting infectious complications in neutropenic children and young people with cancer (IPD protocol).

scientific article

Predicting microbiologically defined infection in febrile neutropenic episodes in children: global individual participant data multivariable meta-analysis

scientific article

Predicting microbiologically defined infection in febrile neutropenic episodes in children: global individual participant data multivariable meta-analysis

article

Predicting risk of COPD in primary care: development and validation of a clinical risk score

scientific article

Predicting risk of undiagnosed COPD in primary care: Development and validation of the TargetCOPD model

scientific article published in September 2016

Predicting risk of undiagnosed COPD: development and validation of the TargetCOPD score

scientific article published on 22 June 2017

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: systematic review and critical appraisal

scientific article published on 07 April 2020

Prediction models in obstetrics: understanding the treatment paradox and potential solutions to the threat it poses

scientific article published on 25 January 2016

Prediction of complications in early-onset pre-eclampsia (PREP): development and external multinational validation of prognostic models

scientific article

Prediction of risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism following treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: systematic review, prognostic model and clinical decision rule, and economic evaluation

scientific article

Predictors of the effects of treatment for shoulder pain: protocol of an individual participant data meta-analysis

scientific article published on 08 August 2019

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses of individual participant data: the PRISMA-IPD Statement

scientific article

Primer: an evidence-based approach to prognostic markers

scientific article

Problems of variable biomarker evaluation in stratified medicine research--A case study of ERCC1 in non-small-cell lung cancer

scientific article

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 2: prognostic factor research

scientific article (publication date: 2013)

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research

scientific article (publication date: 2013)

Prognosis research ideally should measure time-varying predictors at their intended moment of use

scientific article published on 08 February 2017

Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 1: a framework for researching clinical outcomes

scientific article published on 5 February 2013

Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 4: stratified medicine research

scientific article (publication date: 5 February 2013)

Prognosis research: toward evidence-based results and a Cochrane methods group

scientific article published on 06 June 2007

Prognostic significance of the morning blood pressure surge in clinical practice: a systematic review

scientific article

Protocol for a systematic review of prognostic models for the recurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following treatment for a first unprovoked VTE.

scientific article

Protocol for a systematic review of the diagnostic and prognostic utility of tests currently available for the detection of aspirin resistance in patients with established cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease

scientific article published on 26 February 2013

Protocol for a systematic review on the methodological and reporting quality of prediction model studies using machine learning techniques

scientific article published on 11 November 2020

Quantifying the impact of between-study heterogeneity in multivariate meta-analyses

scientific article (publication date: 20 December 2012)

Quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 1: Individual participant data meta-analysis and health economic analysis.

scientific article

Random effects meta-analysis: Coverage performance of 95% confidence and prediction intervals following REML estimation

scientific article published on 07 October 2016

Random-effects meta-analysis of the clinical utility of tests and prediction models.

scientific article published on 25 March 2018

Red blood cell transfusion and mortality in trauma patients: risk-stratified analysis of an observational study

scientific article

Remits, roles and working models for trial steering committees and data monitoring committees in studies evaluating diagnostic tests: a survey of current practice.

scientific article published on 29 November 2013

Reviewing the evidence supporting predictive biomarkers in European medicines agency indications and contraindications using visual plots.

scientific article published on 16 November 2015

Risk of Late Relapse or Reinfection With Hepatitis C Virus After Achieving a Sustained Virological Response: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

scientific article

Sample sizes of prediction model studies in prostate cancer were rarely justified and often insufficient

scientific article published on 28 December 2020

Self-management of health care behaviors for COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

scientific article

Sensitivity analyses allowed more appropriate and reliable meta-analysis conclusions for multiple outcomes when missing data was present

scientific article

Sharing individual participant data from clinical trials: an opinion survey regarding the establishment of a central repository

scientific article (publication date: 2014)

Simulation-based power calculations for planning a two-stage individual participant data meta-analysis.

scientific article published on 18 May 2018

Statistical methods can be improved within Cochrane pregnancy and childbirth reviews ⬇️

scientific article published on December 13, 2010

Stratified medicine in European Medicines Agency licensing: a systematic review of predictive biomarkers

scientific article

Stratified medicine in practice: review of predictive biomarkers in European Medicines Agency (EMA) indications.

scientific article

Study protocol: differential effects of diet and physical activity based interventions in pregnancy on maternal and fetal outcomes--individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis and health economic evaluation

scientific article

Study protocol: quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 2, UK Prospective Cohort Study.

scientific article

Subgrouping and TargetEd Exercise pRogrammes for knee and hip OsteoArthritis (STEER OA): a systematic review update and individual participant data meta-analysis protocol

scientific article published on 22 December 2017

Summarising and validating test accuracy results across multiple studies for use in clinical practice

scientific article published on 20 March 2015

Supported self-management for patients with COPD who have recently been discharged from hospital: a systematic review and meta-analysis

scientific article

Supported self-management for patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): an evidence synthesis and economic analysis

scientific article published on May 2015

Systematic review and critical appraisal of prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 infection

scientific article (preprint)

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the value of clinical features to exclude radiographic pneumonia in febrile neutropenic episodes in children and young people.

scientific article

Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE.

scientific article

TargetCOPD: a pragmatic randomised controlled trial of targeted case finding for COPD versus routine practice in primary care: protocol.

scientific article

Targeted case finding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease versus routine practice in primary care (TargetCOPD): a cluster-randomised controlled trial

scientific article published on 18 July 2016

Temporal Changes in Co-Morbidity Burden in Patients Having Percutaneous Coronary Intervention and Impact on Prognosis

scientific article published on 19 June 2018

Temporal recalibration for improving prognostic model development and risk predictions in settings where survival is improving over time

scientific article published on 03 April 2020

Ten steps towards improving prognosis research.

scientific article published on 30 December 2009

The Value of Preseason Screening for Injury Prediction: The Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prognostic Model to Predict Indirect Muscle Injury Risk in Elite Football (Soccer) Players

scientific article published on 27 May 2020

The prognostic utility of tests of platelet function for the detection of 'aspirin resistance' in patients with established cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease: a systematic review and economic evaluation

scientific article published in May 2015

The role of secondary outcomes in multivariate meta-analysis

The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

scientific article

The statistical importance of a study for a network meta-analysis estimate

scientific article published on 14 July 2020

Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data (TRIPOD-Cluster): explanation and elaboration

scientific article published in 2023

Unexpected predictor-outcome associations in clinical prediction research: causes and solutions

scientific article published on 21 January 2013

Using meta-analysis of Phase II trials to predict Phase III trial results

scientific article published on 29 November 2013

When is birthweight at term (≥37 weeks' gestation) abnormally low? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the prognostic and predictive ability of current birthweight standards for childhood and adult outcomes.

scientific article published on 20 January 2015

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