List of works by Matt J. Keeling

A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain

scientific article published on 2 July 2014

A motif-based approach to network epidemics.

scientific article published on 25 April 2009

A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality

A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing

scientific article

A theoretical study of the role of spatial population structure in the evolution of parasite virulence

scientific article published on 26 December 2012

Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic.

scientific article published in June 2008

Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases.

scientific article published on 5 March 2015

Aggregation dynamics explain vegetation patch-size distributions.

scientific article published on 29 December 2015

An in-host model of acute infection: measles as a case study.

scientific article published on 23 October 2007

An inter-laboratory validation of a real time PCR assay to measure host excretion of bacterial pathogens, particularly of Mycobacterium bovis.

scientific article

Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases

scientific article

Assessing Strategies Against Gambiense Sleeping Sickness Through Mathematical Modeling.

scientific article published in June 2018

Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study

scientific article published on 27 May 2022

Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

scientific article published in 2021

Bubonic plague: a metapopulation model of a zoonosis.

scientific article published in November 2000

Calculation of disease dynamics in a population of households

scientific article

Can reactive school closures help critical care provision during the current influenza pandemic?

scientific article published on 23 October 2009

Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections: Evidence using Natsal-3

scientific article published in PLoS ONE

Characteristic length scales of spatial models in ecology via fluctuation analysis

article

Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898-1949

scientific article published on 10 June 2020

Coexistence and specialization of pathogen strains on contact networks.

scientific article published on 10 July 2006

Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data

scientific article published on 9 January 2018

Contact structure and Salmonella control in the network of pig movements in France

scientific article published on 16 July 2011

Contact tracing and disease control.

scientific article published in December 2003

Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain--the role of geographical scale and contact structure

scientific article

Correlation equations for endemic diseases: externally imposed and internally generated heterogeneity

scientific article published in 1999

Correlation models for childhood epidemics.

scientific article published in August 1997

Correlations between stochastic endemic infection in multiple interacting subpopulations

scientific article published on 02 September 2019

Correlations between stochastic epidemics in two interacting populations

scientific article published on 30 August 2018

Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC.

scientific article

Demography and pedigree structure of an SPF colony of rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta)

scientific article published on 01 April 2001

Deterministic epidemic models with explicit household structure.

scientific article published on 26 February 2008

Deterministic limits to stochastic spatial models of natural enemies.

scientific article published in January 2002

Disease evolution across a range of spatio-temporal scales.

scientific article published on 5 May 2006

Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure ⬇️

scientific article published on April 7, 2003

Disease extinction and community size: modeling the persistence of measles

scientific article published in January 1997

Disease transmission promotes evolution of host spatial patterns

scientific article published on September 2016

Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

scientific article published on 21 July 2017

Dynamics of infectious diseases

scientific article published on 20 January 2014

Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape

scientific article published in Science

Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control

scientific article published on 19 September 2018

Effect of variability in infection period on the persistence and spatial spread of infectious diseases.

scientific article published in January 1998

Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

scientific article published on 23 June 2020

Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics.

scientific article published on 21 January 2009

Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

scientific article

Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases

scientific article published on 26 August 2014

Endemic cattle diseases: comparative epidemiology and governance

scientific article

Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations.

scientific article published on 13 December 2010

Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data

scientific article

Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices

scientific article (preprint)

Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices

scientific article published on 02 July 2020

Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households

scientific article

Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics.

scientific article published on 12 May 2015

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number

scientific article published on 12 August 2020

Forecasting the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya

scientific article published on 14 April 2020

Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems

scientific article

Herd size and bovine tuberculosis persistence in cattle farms in Great Britain

scientific article published on 16 September 2009

Host-parasite interactions between the local and the mean-field: how and when does spatial population structure matter?

scientific article published on 16 June 2007

Household structure and infectious disease transmission.

scientific article

Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo

scientific article published in 2022

Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain

scientific article published on 8 February 2012

Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control

scientific article

Implications of vaccination and waning immunity.

scientific article published on 4 March 2009

Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease

scientific article published on 07 August 2019

Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

scientific article published on January 2017

Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations

scientific article

Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks

scientific article published on 10 June 2010

Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model

scientific article published on 30 October 2008

Invasion dynamics of Asian hornet, Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae): a case study of a commune in south-west France. ⬇️

scientific article

Is R(0) a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK.

scientific article

Mapping social distancing measures to the reproduction number for COVID-19

scientific article published on 19 July 2021

Mathematical modeling of ovine footrot in the UK: the effect of Dichelobacter nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum on the disease dynamics.

scientific article

Mental health stigmatisation in deployed UK Armed Forces: a principal components analysis

scientific article published in December 2015

MetaWards: A flexible metapopulation framework for modelling disease spread

scientific article published on 14 February 2022

Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence

scientific article published in September 2000

Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

scientific article

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

scientific article published on 12 December 2011

Modelling foot-and-mouth disease: a comparison between the UK and Denmark

scientific article published on 6 March 2008

Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic

scientific article published on 2 February 2011

Modelling the many-wrongs principle: the navigational advantages of aggregation in nomadic foragers.

scientific article published on 10 November 2005

Modelling the persistence of measles

scientific article published on December 1997

Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees.

scientific article published on 11 September 2013

Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness

scientific article published on 13 September 2021

Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease.

scientific article published on 22 December 2002

Models of foot-and-mouth disease

article

Monogamous networks and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases.

scientific article published in June 2004

Multiplicative moments and measures of persistence in ecology

scientific article published in July 2000

Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations.

scientific article published on 6 April 2018

Neighbourhood control policies and the spread of infectious diseases.

scientific article published in August 2003

Networks and epidemic models

scientific article published on September 2005

Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease

scientific article

On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics.

scientific article published on February 2008

Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine

scientific article published on 07 March 2012

Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy?

scientific article

Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK.

scientific article published on March 2006

Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation

scientific article published on 06 October 2020

Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics.

scientific article

Planning for smallpox outbreaks.

scientific article published on October 2003

Predicting the Impact of Intervention Strategies for Sleeping Sickness in Two High-Endemicity Health Zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo

scientific article published in January 2017

Predicting the spread of the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) following its incursion into Great Britain

scientific article published on 24 July 2017

Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. ⬇️

scientific article published on 16 December 2008

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

scientific article published on 11 May 2020

Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions.

scientific article published on 13 October 2016

Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns

scientific article

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

scientific article published on 9 December 2015

Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

scientific article published on 22 October 2015

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

scientific article published on 4 February 2015

Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks

scientific article published on 24 July 2018

Reinterpreting space, time lags, and functional responses in ecological models

scientific article published in December 2000

Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks

scientific article published in 2009

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

scientific article published in 2022

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

scientific article published on 28 October 2019

Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry

scientific article published in Nature

Simple stochastic models and their power-law type behaviour.

scientific article published in August 2000

Social encounter networks: characterizing Great Britain

scientific article published on 26 June 2013

Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission

scientific article

Spatially extended host-parasite interactions: the role of recovery and immunity.

scientific article published on 22 September 2006

Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries

scientific article published on 20 July 2021

Stochastic dynamics and a power law for measles variability.

scientific article

Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease.

scientific article published in September 2007

Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set

scientific article

Support needs and experiences of family members of wounded, injured or sick UK service personnel

scientific article published on 9 October 2017

Systematic Approximations to Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Dynamics on Networks

scientific article

Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain

scientific article

Testing the hypothesis of preferential attachment in social network formation.

scientific article published on 9 October 2015

The Efficacy of Contact Tracing for the Containment of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).

scientific article

The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data

scientific article

The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control

scientific article

The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies

scientific article (preprint)

The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections

scientific article published on 19 August 2019

The colour of noise in short ecological time series data.

scientific article

The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics

scientific article published on 6 June 2014

The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population

scientific article

The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions

scientific article published on 01 April 1999

The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations

scientific article

The impact of current infection levels on the cost-benefit of vaccination.

scientific article published on 8 July 2017

The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States

scientific article

The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus.

scientific article

The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics

article

The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases.

scientific article published in May 2002

The invasion and coexistence of competing Wolbachia strains.

scientific article

The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease

article by Michael J Tildesley et al published 22 September 2009 in Proceedings of the Royal Society B

The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain

scientific article published on 14 November 2009

The role of spatial population structure on the evolution of parasites with acquired immunity and demography

scientific article published on 31 January 2013

Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic.

scientific article

UK support services for families of wounded, injured or sick Service personnel: the need for evaluation

scientific article published on 23 February 2016

Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation.

scientific article published in February 2002

Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot

scholarly article

Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

scientific article published on 28 October 2019

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