List of works - Tim Lenton

2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question

scientific article published in Nature

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact‐Low Likelihood Climate Risks

scientific article published in 2023

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

scientific article published on 12 August 2021

A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle and ocean circulation controls on atmospheric CO2

A model for microbial phosphorus cycling in bioturbated marine sediments: Significance for phosphorus burial in the early Paleozoic

article

A modeling case for high atmospheric oxygen concentrations during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic ⬇️

article

A morphometric analysis of vegetation patterns in dryland ecosystems.

scientific article

A review of climate geoengineering appraisals

article

A review of climate geoengineering proposals

article

A safe operating space for humanity

scientific article

A tectonically driven Ediacaran oxygenation event.

scientific article published on 19 June 2019

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

scientific article published on 28 May 2020

Abrupt climate change in the Arctic

scholarly article by Carlos M. Duarte et al published February 2012 in Nature Climate Change

Alternative mechanisms for Gaia

scholarly article by Arwen E. Nicholson et al published 14 November 2018 in Journal of Theoretical Biology

Anticipating critical transitions

scientific article published on October 2012

Arctic Tipping Points in an Earth System Perspective ⬇️

scientific article (publication date: February 2012)

Arctic climate tipping points

scientific article

Artificial selection of simulated microbial ecosystems

scholarly article

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections

scientific article

Atmospheric oxygen regulation at low Proterozoic levels by incomplete oxidative weathering of sedimentary organic carbon. ⬇️

scientific article published on 02 February 2017

Author Correction: The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science

Beyond 2°C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems

scholarly article by Timothy M Lenton published 10 March 2011 in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change

Biogeochemical Transformations in the History of the Ocean

scientific article

Biotic enhancement of weathering, atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide in the Neoproterozoic

scholarly article

Biotic feedback extends the life span of the biosphere

scholarly article

Bistability of atmospheric oxygen and the Great Oxidation.

scientific article

Bridging the gap between omics and earth system science to better understand how environmental change impacts marine microbes

scientific article

COPSE reloaded: An improved model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time ⬇️

COPSE: A new model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time

scientific article published in May 2004

Catastrophic desert formation in Daisyworld.

scientific article

Causal feedbacks in climate change

scholarly article by Egbert H. van Nes et al published 30 March 2015 in Nature Climate Change

Changing tectonic controls on the long-term carbon cycle from Mesozoic to present ⬇️

Charcoal evidence that rising atmospheric oxygen terminated Early Jurassic ocean anoxia.

scientific article published on 12 May 2017

Climate Change to the End of the Millennium

scholarly article by Timothy M Lenton published 20 May 2006 in Climatic Change

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

scientific article published in August 2022

Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required

article

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

scientific article published on 27 January 2020

Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate

April 2015 scholarly article in Nature Climate Change

Climate engineering reconsidered

article

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

scientific article

Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

scientific article published in November 2019

Co-evolution of eukaryotes and ocean oxygenation in the Neoproterozoic era ⬇️

Comparison of Ediacaran platform and slope δ238U records in South China: Implications for global-ocean oxygenation and the origin of the Shuram Excursion

Corrigendum to “CO2 and O2 oxidized 2.7 Ga micrometeorites in two stages suggesting a >32% CO2 atmosphere” [Precambr. Res. 366 (2021) 106423]

Daisyworld revisited: quantifying biological effects on planetary self?regulation

Daisyworld: A review

article

Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points

scientific article published on 20 September 2021

Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points

scientific article

Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

scientific article published in March 2015

Developing the Gaia Theory. A Response to the Criticisms of Kirchner and Volk

Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation

scientific article published on 23 November 2021

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen ⬇️

scientific article

Early Palaeozoic ocean anoxia and global warming driven by the evolution of shallow burrowing. ⬇️

scientific article published on 2 July 2018

Early warning of climate tipping points

scientific article published on 19 June 2011

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

scientific article published on 8 December 2014

Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback

scholarly article by Chris A. Boulton et al published 29 May 2013 in Theoretical Ecology

Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

scientific article published on 13 April 2016

Earth System Science: A Very Short Introduction

Earth system boundaries and Earth system justice: sharing the ecospace

scientific article published on 24 July 2023

Earth system modelling with Windows Workflow Foundation

Earth systems: No place like home

journal article; published in Nature on 2014-04-02

Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

Elevated CO2 degassing rates prevented the return of Snowball Earth during the Phanerozoic ⬇️

scientific article published on 24 October 2017

Enhanced carbonate and silicate weathering accelerates recovery from fossil fuel CO2perturbations

Environmental Tipping Points

article published in 2013

Environmental regulation in a network of simulated microbial ecosystems.

scientific article

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies

scientific article

Estimates of economic and environmental damages from tipping points cannot be reconciled with the scientific literature

scientific article published on 19 May 2022

Eukaryogenesis and oxygen in Earth history

scientific article published in 2022

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

scientific article published on 9 September 2022

Extensive marine anoxia associated with the Late Devonian Hangenberg Crisis

Fire Feedbacks on Atmospheric Oxygen

article published in 2013

First plants cooled the Ordovician

article

Fluctuation in the physical environment as a mechanism for reinforcing evolutionary transitions

Future Climate Surprises

article

Future of the human climate niche

scientific article published on 04 May 2020

Gaia 2.0.

scientific article published on 13 September 2018

Gaia as a complex adaptive system

scientific article

Global marine redox changes drove the rise and fall of the Ediacara biota

scientific article published on 28 July 2019

Global terrestrial carbon storage and uncertainties in its temperature sensitivity examined with a simple model

article

Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet

scholarly article

Implications of different stellar spectra for the climate of tidally locked Earth-like exoplanets

scientific article published in July 2020

Individual-based modelling of adaptation in marine microbial populations using genetically defined physiological parameters

article published in 2011

Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments

article published in 2012

Interactions between reducing CO2 emissions, CO2 removal and solar radiation management

scientific article published in September 2012

JULES-BE: representation of bioenergy crops and harvesting in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn5.1

scientific article published on 11 March 2020

James Lovelock (1919–2022)

scientific article published on 26 August 2022

Knowledge problems in climate change and security research

scholarly article by Kirsty H. Lewis & Timothy M Lenton published 13 May 2015 in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change

Land and ocean carbon cycle feedback effects on global warming in a simple Earth system model

scientific article published in 2000

Land and ocean carbon cycle feedback effects on global warming in a simple Earth system model

article

Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

scientific article published in Nature Communications

Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change

scientific article published on 01 October 2019

Late inception of a resiliently oxygenated upper ocean

scientific article published in Science

Marine microplastic debris: a targeted plan for understanding and quantifying interactions with marine life

scientific article published in 2016

Matworld - the biogeochemical effects of early life on land

scientific article published on 24 November 2016

Multiple Climate Tipping Points Metrics for Improved Sustainability Assessment of Products and Services

scientific article published on 05 February 2021

Multiple environmental controls on phytoplankton growth strategies determine adaptive responses of the N : P ratio

scientific article published on 12 January 2014

Multiple states of environmental regulation in well-mixed model biospheres.

scientific article published on 23 November 2016

Natural selection for costly nutrient recycling in simulated microbial metacommunities.

scientific article

Nitrogen-enhanced greenhouse warming on early Earth

scientific article published on 15 November 2009

No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns

scientific article

Observational constraints on the causes of Holocene CO2change

Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability

scientific article published on 19 July 2017

Ocean deoxygenation, the global phosphorus cycle and the possibility of human-caused large-scale ocean anoxia ⬇️

scientific article

On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points ⬇️

scientific article published on June 15, 2013

On the use of models in understanding the rise of complex life

scientific article published on 12 June 2020

Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability

scientific article published on 10 January 2022

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

scientific article published on 29 July 2021

Periodic mid-Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events linked by oscillations of the phosphorus and oxygen biogeochemical cycles

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

article

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

scholarly article

Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s ⬇️

journal article from 'Nature Climate Change' published in 2022

Proterozoic oxygen rise linked to shifting balance between seafloor and terrestrial weathering.

scientific article

Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

scholarly article

Quantifying the feedback between ocean heating and CO2solubility as an equivalent carbon emission

scholarly article

Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Scholarly article, 2023

Redfield revisited: 1. Regulation of nitrate, phosphate, and oxygen in the ocean

Redfield revisited: 2. What regulates the oxygen content of the atmosphere?

article

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures

scientific article published on 17 June 2019

Rethinking climate engineering categorization in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation ⬇️

scholarly article by Olivier Boucher et al published 23 October 2013 in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change

Revolutions in energy input and material cycling in Earth history and human history

Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

scholarly article

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

scientific article

Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

scientific article published in 2013

Selection for Gaia across Multiple Scales

scientific article published in 2018

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

scientific article published on 13 January 2020

Signatures Consistent with Multifrequency Tipping in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

scientific article published on 01 November 2020

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

scientific article

Social Tipping Processes for Sustainability: An Analytical Framework

scientific article published in 2020

Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework

scientific article published on 19 October 2021

Solving the climate crisis: lessons from ozone depletion and COVID-19

scientific article published in 2020

Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations

scientific article

Stepwise oxygenation of the Paleozoic atmosphere ⬇️

scientific article published in Nature Communications

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

scholarly article

Survival of the Systems

scientific article published on 04 January 2021

Symbiotic physiology promotes homeostasis in Daisyworld.

scientific article

Testing Gaia Theory with Artificial Life

Testing Gaia: The Effect of Life on Earth's Habitability and Regulation

The biogeographic differentiation of algal microbiomes in the upper ocean from pole to pole

scientific article published in 2021

The coupled evolution of life and atmospheric oxygen

The effect of widespread early aerobic marine ecosystems on methane cycling and the Great Oxidation

scholarly article

The effects of marine eukaryote evolution on phosphorus, carbon and oxygen cycling across the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic transition

scientific article published on 01 September 2018

The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science

The evolution of biogeochemical recycling by persistence-based selection

scholarly article

The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal

scientific article published in May 2017

The not-so-boring billion

scholarly article

The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

scientific article published on 22 January 2024

The rise of angiosperms strengthened fire feedbacks and improved the regulation of atmospheric oxygen

scientific article

The rise of oxygen and complex life

scientific article published on 30 January 2012

Tipping climate cooperation

scholarly article

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

scientific article

Tipping points in the climate system

scientific article published in 2021

Tipping positive change

scientific article published on 27 January 2020

Tipping the scales

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Unique Neoproterozoic carbon isotope excursions sustained by coupled evaporite dissolution and pyrite burial

scientific article published on 2 September 2019

Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: plausible grounds for hope

scientific article published on 11 January 2021

Uranium isotope evidence for two episodes of deoxygenation during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2.

scientific article published on 5 March 2018

Uranium isotopes distinguish two geochemically distinct stages during the later Cambrian SPICE event.

scientific article

Uranium isotopes in marine carbonates as a global ocean paleoredox proxy: A critical review

scientific article published in October 2020

Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

scientific article published in March 2009

Warm afterglow from the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event drives the success of deep-adapted brachiopods

scientific article published on 16 April 2020

What early warning systems are there for environmental shocks?

Why NH3is not a candidate reagent for ambient CO2fixation: A response to “Alternative solution to global warming arising from CO2emissions-Partial neutralization of tropospheric H2CO3with NH3”

article

World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021

‘Opening up’ geoengineering appraisal: Multi-Criteria Mapping of options for tackling climate change

scholarly article by Rob Bellamy et al published October 2013 in Global Environmental Change

List of works by Tim Lenton

2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact‐Low Likelihood Climate Risks

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle and ocean circulation controls on atmospheric CO2

A model for microbial phosphorus cycling in bioturbated marine sediments: Significance for phosphorus burial in the early Paleozoic

A modeling case for high atmospheric oxygen concentrations during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic ⬇️

A morphometric analysis of vegetation patterns in dryland ecosystems.

A review of climate geoengineering appraisals

A review of climate geoengineering proposals

A safe operating space for humanity

A tectonically driven Ediacaran oxygenation event.

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Abrupt climate change in the Arctic

Alternative mechanisms for Gaia

Anticipating critical transitions

Arctic Tipping Points in an Earth System Perspective ⬇️

Arctic climate tipping points

Artificial selection of simulated microbial ecosystems

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections

Atmospheric oxygen regulation at low Proterozoic levels by incomplete oxidative weathering of sedimentary organic carbon. ⬇️

Author Correction: The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science

Beyond 2°C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems

Biogeochemical Transformations in the History of the Ocean

Biotic enhancement of weathering, atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide in the Neoproterozoic

Biotic feedback extends the life span of the biosphere

Bistability of atmospheric oxygen and the Great Oxidation.

Bridging the gap between omics and earth system science to better understand how environmental change impacts marine microbes

COPSE reloaded: An improved model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time ⬇️

COPSE: A new model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time

Catastrophic desert formation in Daisyworld.

Causal feedbacks in climate change

Changing tectonic controls on the long-term carbon cycle from Mesozoic to present ⬇️

Charcoal evidence that rising atmospheric oxygen terminated Early Jurassic ocean anoxia.

Climate Change to the End of the Millennium

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate

Climate engineering reconsidered

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

Co-evolution of eukaryotes and ocean oxygenation in the Neoproterozoic era ⬇️

Comparison of Ediacaran platform and slope δ238U records in South China: Implications for global-ocean oxygenation and the origin of the Shuram Excursion

Corrigendum to “CO2 and O2 oxidized 2.7 Ga micrometeorites in two stages suggesting a &gt;32% CO2 atmosphere” [Precambr. Res. 366 (2021) 106423]

Daisyworld revisited: quantifying biological effects on planetary self?regulation

Daisyworld: A review

Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points

Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points

Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

Developing the Gaia Theory. A Response to the Criticisms of Kirchner and Volk

Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen ⬇️

Early Palaeozoic ocean anoxia and global warming driven by the evolution of shallow burrowing. ⬇️

Early warning of climate tipping points

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback

Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

Earth System Science: A Very Short Introduction

Earth system boundaries and Earth system justice: sharing the ecospace

Earth system modelling with Windows Workflow Foundation

Earth systems: No place like home

Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

Elevated CO2 degassing rates prevented the return of Snowball Earth during the Phanerozoic ⬇️

Enhanced carbonate and silicate weathering accelerates recovery from fossil fuel CO2perturbations

Environmental Tipping Points

Environmental regulation in a network of simulated microbial ecosystems.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies

Estimates of economic and environmental damages from tipping points cannot be reconciled with the scientific literature

Eukaryogenesis and oxygen in Earth history

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Extensive marine anoxia associated with the Late Devonian Hangenberg Crisis

Fire Feedbacks on Atmospheric Oxygen

First plants cooled the Ordovician

Fluctuation in the physical environment as a mechanism for reinforcing evolutionary transitions

Future Climate Surprises

Future of the human climate niche

Gaia 2.0.

Gaia as a complex adaptive system

Global marine redox changes drove the rise and fall of the Ediacara biota

Corrigendum to “CO2 and O2 oxidized 2.7 Ga micrometeorites in two stages suggesting a >32% CO2 atmosphere” [Precambr. Res. 366 (2021) 106423]