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List of works by Gerardo Chowell

(Vision Paper) A Vision for Spatio-Causal Situation Awareness, Forecasting, and Planning

scientific article published in 2024

2. Worst-Case Scenarios and Epidemics

A Population Based Study of Seasonality of Skin and Soft Tissue Infections: Implications for the Spread of CA-MRSA ⬇️

scientific article published on April 2, 2013

A discrete events delay differential system model for transmission of Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) in hospitals

article

A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events

scientific article published on 10 August 2016

A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

scientific article

A maximum curvature method for estimating epidemic onset of seasonal influenza in Japan

article

A new A/H1N1 influenza virus strain. Preface

scientific article published in January 2011

A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

scientific article published on 22 August 2019

A practical method to target individuals for outbreak detection and control ⬇️

scientific article published on February 12, 2013

A primer on stable parameter estimation and forecasting in epidemiology by a problem-oriented regularized least squares algorithm

scholarly article by Alexandra Smirnova & Gerardo Chowell published May 2017 in Infectious Disease Modelling

A review of the 1918 herald pandemic wave: importance for contemporary pandemic response strategies

scientific article published on 2 March 2018

Accounting for behavioral responses during a flu epidemic using home television viewing

scientific article

Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models

scientific article

Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study

article by Gerardo Chowell et al published 17 August 2009 in PLOS Currents

Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.

scientific article

Assessing parameter identifiability in compartmental dynamic models using a computational approach: application to infectious disease transmission models

article

Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018–January 2019

scholarly article published by A. Tariq in 2019

Assessing the relationship between epidemic growth scaling and epidemic size: The 2014-16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa ⬇️

article

Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection

scientific article

Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling

scientific article

Changes in testing rates could mask the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate

scientific article published on 19 April 2020

Changes in the viral distribution pattern after the appearance of the novel influenza A H1N1 (pH1N1) virus in influenza-like illness patients in Peru

scientific article

Characterizing Ebola Transmission Patterns Based on Internet News Reports

scientific article

Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico

scientific article

Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

scientific article

Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease

scientific article

Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters

scientific article

Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever: the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico.

scientific article

Commentary: lessons learned from case fatality risk estimates of 2009 pandemic influenza.

scientific article

Comparative analysis of phenomenological growth models applied to epidemic outbreaks

scientific article published on 01 May 2019

Comparative assessment of parameter estimation methods in the presence of overdispersion: a simulation study

scientific article published on 01 May 2019

Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data.

scientific article

Controlling Ebola: key role of Ebola treatment centres

scientific article published on 7 January 2015

Death patterns during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chile.

scientific article

Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies

scientific article

Differences in Transmission and Disease Severity Between 2 Successive Waves of Chikungunya

article

Does Glycosylation as a modifier of Original Antigenic Sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza?

scientific article

Doubling Time of the COVID-19 Epidemic by Province, China

scientific article published on 24 April 2020

Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January-February, 2020

scientific article published on 15 July 2020

Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

scientific article

Early sub-exponential epidemic growth: Simple models, nonlinear incidence rates, and additional mechanisms: Reply to comments on "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review".

scientific article published on 8 September 2016

Early transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru, February 29th-March 30th, 2020 .

scientific article published on 05 May 2020

Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Chile: From sub-exponential ascending growth dynamics to a stationary disease wave, March-April, 2020

scientific article published on 18 May 2020

Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th-March 30th, 2020

scientific article published on 12 May 2020

Ebola control: rapid diagnostic testing

scientific article published on 19 November 2014

Ebola vaccine trials: a race against the clock

scientific article published on 14 April 2015

Effect of the Wet Market on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in China, 2019-2020

scientific article published on 01 June 2020

Elucidating Transmission Patterns From Internet Reports: Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome as Case Studies

scientific article

Epidemic doubling time of the COVID-19 epidemic by Chinese province

scientific article published on 6 February 2020

Epidemiological characteristics and underlying risk factors for mortality during the autumn 2009 pandemic wave in Mexico

scientific article (publication date: 2012)

Epidemiological characterization of a fourth wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011-2012: age shift and severity.

scientific article

Erratum To: Accounting for Behavioral Responses during a Flu Epidemic Using Home Television Viewing

scientific article published on 5 September 2016

Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020

scientific article published on 13 March 2020

Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

scientific article (preprint)

Estimating the Risk of COVID-19 Death During the Course of the Outbreak in Korea, February-May 2020

scientific article published on 29 May 2020

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020

scientific article published on 01 March 2020

Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.

scientific article

Estimating the risk of 2019 Novel Coronavirus death during the course of the outbreak in China, 2020

scientific article

Estimating the risk of COVID-19 death during the course of the outbreak in Korea, February- May, 2020

scientific article published on 01 April 2020

Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.

scientific article published on 11 August 2015

Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016

scientific article (publication date: 9 November 2016)

Evaluating the potential impact of targeted vaccination strategies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks in the healthcare setting

Excess mortality patterns during 1918-1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA.

scientific article published on 21 December 2017

Exploring optimal control strategies in seasonally varying flu-like epidemics

scientific article

Fogarty International Center collaborative networks in infectious disease modeling: lessons learnt in research and capacity building

scholarly article published by Edward C. Holmes in 2018

Forecasting Epidemics Through Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Dependent Transmission Rates Using the SEIR Model

scientific article

Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK.

scientific article published on 13 December 2017

Getting to zero in the DR Congo Ebola outbreak

scientific article published on 09 March 2020

Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing

scientific article published on 5 February 2020

Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

scientific article

Global transmission network of SARS-CoV-2: from outbreak to pandemic

scientific article (preprint)

Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds

scientific article

Household and community transmission of the Asian influenza A (H2N2) and influenza B viruses in 1957 and 1961.

scientific article

Identification of case clusters and counties with high infective connectivity in the 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Uruguay

scientific article

Identifying determinants of heterogeneous transmission dynamics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015: a retrospective epidemiological analysis

scientific article published on 23 February 2016

Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009. ⬇️

scientific article

Impact of antiviral treatment and hospital admission delay on risk of death associated with 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in Mexico

scientific article

Infectious disease risks among refugees from North Korea

scientific article published on 7 November 2017

Influenza and pneumonia mortality in 66 large cities in the United States in years surrounding the 1918 pandemic

scientific article

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren

scientific article (publication date: 2011)

Intense seasonal A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2013-2014.

scientific article

Introduction to symposium: a century after the 1918 influenza pandemic

scientific article published on 23 March 2018

Investigating spatial variability in COVID-19 pandemic severity across 19 geographic areas, Spain, 2020

scientific article published on 18 April 2020

Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia

scientific article

Is it growing exponentially fast? -- Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics

article

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review

scientific article

Measuring the benefits of school closure interventions to mitigate influenza

scientific article published in October 2011

Mechanistic modelling of multiple waves in an influenza epidemic or pandemic

scientific article published on 04 November 2019

Mechanistic modelling of the large-scale Lassa fever epidemics in Nigeria from 2016 to 2019

scientific article published on 22 February 2020

Merging economics and epidemiology to improve the prediction and management of infectious disease

scientific article

Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS.

scientific article published in July 2004

Modeling Optimal Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies Against Pandemic Influenza ⬇️

scientific article published on December 7, 2011

Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

scientific article

Modelling the spatial-temporal progression of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile.

scientific article

Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona

scientific article

Mortality burden of the A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico: a comparison of deaths and years of life lost to seasonal influenza

scientific article

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations

scientific article

Multi-model forecasts of the ongoing Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, March-October 2019

scientific article published on 26 August 2020

Multiple Trigger Points for Quantifying Heat-Health Impacts: New Evidence from a Hot Climate

scientific article published on 28 July 2015

Natality Decline and Spatial Variation in Excess Death Rates During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Arizona, United States

scientific article published on 01 December 2018

Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal gender-structured model for hantavirus infection in rodents

scientific article published in February 2018

Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal predator-prey model with infected prey

scientific article published on 01 December 2018

Numerical study of discretization algorithms for stable estimation of disease parameters and epidemic forecasting

scientific article published on 01 April 2019

Occupation and Environmental Heat-Associated Deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona: A Case-Control Study ⬇️

scientific article published on May 29, 2013

On Stable Parameter Estimation and Forecasting in Epidemiology by the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm with Broyden's Rank-one Updates for the Jacobian Operator

scientific article published on 23 July 2019

Optimal control for pandemic influenza: the role of limited antiviral treatment and isolation

scientific article

Pandemic influenza and socioeconomic disparities: Lessons from 1918 Chicago

scientific article

Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward

scientific article published on March 2017

Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)

scientific article

Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis ⬇️

scientific article

Prior dengue virus infection and risk of Zika: A pediatric cohort in Nicaragua

scientific article published on 22 January 2019

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

scientific article

Quantifying the fitness of antiviral-resistant influenza strains

scientific article

Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

article

Rates of influenza-like illness and winter school breaks, Chile, 2004-2010.

scientific article

Real-time characterization of risks of death associated with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea, 2015

scientific article published on 30 September 2015

Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, February 2020

scientific article (preprint)

Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, March 2020

scientific article published on 03 June 2020

Recrudescent wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011-2012: Age shift and severity

scientific article

Risk of death by age and gender from CoVID-19 in Peru, March-May, 2020

scientific article published on 21 July 2020

Rurality and pandemic influenza: geographic heterogeneity in the risks of infection and death in Kanagawa, Japan (1918-1919).

scientific article

SIRTEM: Spatially Informed Rapid Testing for Epidemic Modeling and Response to COVID-19

scientific article published on 09 August 2022

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Potential, Iran, 2020

scientific article published on 22 April 2020

Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in Humans, Domesticated Animals, Ticks, and Mosquitoes, Shaanxi Province, China

scientific article

Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

scientific article

Severe respiratory disease concurrent with the circulation of H1N1 influenza.

scientific article

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020

scientific article published on 22 February 2020

Simple multi-scale modeling of the transmission dynamics of the 1905 plague epidemic in Bombay

scientific article published on 16 April 2018

Simulación del nivel de eliminación de sarampión y rubéola según la estratificación e interacción social

scientific article published on 01 February 2010

Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza

scientific article

Social Media Use in Emergency Response to Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review With a Public Health Perspective

scientific article published on 01 February 2020

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Rubella in Peru, 1997–2006: Geographic Patterns, Age at Infection and Estimation of Transmissibility

Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru.

scientific article

Spatial dynamics and the basic reproduction number of the 1991-1997 Cholera epidemic in Peru

scientific article published on 14 July 2020

Spatial variability in reproduction number and doubling time across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, February to July 2020

scientific article published on 07 October 2020

Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January-September 2019

scientific article published on 01 October 2019

Spatial variability in the risk of death from COVID-19 in 20 regions of Italy

scientific article published on 03 April 2020

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain.

scientific article

Spatially refined time-varying reproduction numbers of SARS-CoV-2 in Arkansas and Kentucky and their relationship to population size and public health policy, March - November 2020

scientific article published on 11 January 2022

Substantial Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Pandemic A/H1N1 Influenza in Mexico, Winter 2013-2014: Gradual Age Shift and Severity

scientific article

Sustainable social distancing through facemask use and testing during the Covid-19 pandemic

scientific article published on 06 April 2020

Synthesizing data and models for the spread of MERS-CoV, 2013: key role of index cases and hospital transmission

scientific article

Systematic comparison of epidemic growth patterns using two different estimation approaches

scientific article published on 24 October 2020

Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan

scientific article published on 01 June 2020

The 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia

scientific article (publication date: 2012)

The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact

scientific article published on 7 March 2008

The COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: what might we expect?

scientific article published on 01 April 2020

The Effective Reproduction Number as a Prelude to Statistical Estimation of Time-Dependent Epidemic Trends

The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge special issue: Preface

scientific article published on 24 October 2017

The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation

scientific article published on 20 September 2017

The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt

scientific article published on 26 August 2017

The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates

scientific article

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic ⬇️

scientific article published on December 12, 2012

The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

scientific article

The first human infection with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus in Shaanxi Province, China

scientific article

The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course

scientific article

The impact of different types of violence on Ebola virus disease transmission during the 2018-2020 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

scientific article published on 07 April 2020

The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

scientific article

The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008.

scientific article

The need for interdisciplinary studies of historic pandemics

scientific article published in July 2011

The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996-2006.

scientific article published on 11 February 2010

The role of vaccination in the control of sars

scientific article published in October 2005

Theoretical perspectives on the infectiousness of Ebola virus disease

scientific article published on 6 January 2015

Time-specific ecologic niche models forecast the risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Dongting Lake district, China, 2005-2010.

scientific article

Toward unbiased assessment of treatment and prevention: modeling household transmission of pandemic influenza

scientific article

Towards Real Time Epidemiology: Data Assimilation, Modeling and Anomaly Detection of Health Surveillance Data Streams

article

Transmissibility of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: zoonotic vs. human to human transmission, China, 2019-2020

scientific article (preprint)

Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative study

scientific article published on 3 September 2015

Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review

scientific article

Transmission dynamics and underreporting of Kala-azar in the Indian state of Bihar

scientific article

Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea

scientific article published on 18 March 2020

Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran

scientific article (preprint)

Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

scientific article (preprint)

Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China

scientific article

Transmission potential of modified measles during an outbreak, Japan, March‒May 2018

article

Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

scientific article (preprint)

Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

scientific article published on 29 February 2020

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities

scientific article published on 17 April 2018

Using Phenomenological Models to Characterize Transmissibility and Forecast Patterns and Final Burden of Zika Epidemics

scientific article

Using Twitter to Track Unplanned School Closures: Georgia Public Schools, 2015-17

scientific article published on 14 May 2020

Using phenomenological models for forecasting the 2015 Ebola challenge

scientific article published on 19 November 2016

Vaccination strategies to control Ebola epidemics in the context of variable household inaccessibility levels

scientific article published on 21 November 2019

WITHDRAWN: Intense Seasonal A/H1N1 Influenza in Mexico, Winter 2013-2014.

retracted scientific article published on 20 November 2014

We could learn much more from 1918 pandemic-the (mis)fortune of research relying on original death certificates

scientific article published on 9 January 2018

Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.

scientific article

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