List of works - Malte Meinshausen

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

article

A Scaling Approach to Probabilistic Assessment of Regional Climate Change

article

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

scientific article published in September 2019

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

scientific article published on March 2017

Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts—a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

scientific article

Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

scientific article published on 04 November 2019

Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

article

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

scientific article published in 2021

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

scholarly article

Carbon removals from nature restoration are no substitute for steep emission reductions

scientific article published in July 2022

Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled

scientific article published in 2022

Changes in global-mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon ⬇️

article

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

article

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

scientific article

Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

scholarly article

Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming

article

Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

scientific article published in April 2010

Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module

article published in 2011

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 °C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

article

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

scientific article

Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation

scientific article published on 23 November 2021

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

scientific article

Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit

article

Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications

scholarly article

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration

scholarly article

Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Erratum: Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

scholarly article published in Nature Climate Change

Erratum: Corrigendum: Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

scientific article published in Nature

Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming

article

Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C

scientific article published on 17 May 2022

Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

article

Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways

article by Jean-François Lamarque et al published 5 August 2011 in Climatic Change

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

article

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

scientific article

Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C

Historical greenhouse gas concentrations

Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)

scientific article published in 2017

How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?

article

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

article

Impact of short-lived non-CO2mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

article

Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy

Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate

article published in 2013

Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

article

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Long-term economic benefits of stabilizing warming without overshoot – the ENGAGE model intercomparison

scientific article

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

Missing the turn towards a low-emission path?

article published in 2008

Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

scientific article published on 16 May 2022

Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: Costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase

article by Michel G. J. den Elzen et al published May 2007 in Global Environmental Change

National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement

National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

scientific article (publication date: 22 December 2008)

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity

article

Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

scientific article

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

scientific article published on 9 October 2024

PRIMAP – Potsdam Real-Time Integrated Model for the probabilistic assessment of emission paths

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

scientific article

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

scientific article

Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning

Probability-Weighted Ensembles of U.S. County-Level Climate Projections for Climate Risk Analysis

article

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

scholarly article

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

preprint article posted on 23 May 2019

Publisher Correction: Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

article

Questions of bias in climate models

article

Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C

scientific article published on 13 April 2022

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

scientific article published in 2020

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

scientific article published in 2021

Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0

scientific article published in 2021

Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research

scientific article

Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research

Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

article

Supplementary material to "Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)"

scientific article published on 23 May 2019

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model

article

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

article

Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

scientific article (publication date: 7 October 2008)

The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations

scientific article published in 2011

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

scientific article published in 2022

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations

scientific article published in 2017

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

scholarly article

The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

scientific article

The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component

scholarly article by Andries F. Hof et al published 17 December 2011 in Climatic Change

The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields

scientific article published in 2019

The exit strategy

article

The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancún Agreements

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

scholarly article, 2011

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

scientific article published on 13 August 2020

The world's biggest gamble

Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO2and CH4

article

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

scientific article

Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges

scientific article published in Nature Communications

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

scientific article

Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

article

List of works by Malte Meinshausen

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

A Scaling Approach to Probabilistic Assessment of Regional Climate Change

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts—a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

Carbon removals from nature restoration are no substitute for steep emission reductions

Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled

Changes in global-mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon ⬇️

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming

Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

Decision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 °C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit

Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration

Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Erratum: Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Erratum: Corrigendum: Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming

Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C

Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C

Historical greenhouse gas concentrations

Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)

How Much Warming are We Committed to and How Much can be Avoided?

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Impact of short-lived non-CO2mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy

Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate

Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Long-term economic benefits of stabilizing warming without overshoot – the ENGAGE model intercomparison

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

Missing the turn towards a low-emission path?

Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: Costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase

National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement

National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity

Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

PRIMAP – Potsdam Real-Time Integrated Model for the probabilistic assessment of emission paths

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation

Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning

Probability-Weighted Ensembles of U.S. County-Level Climate Projections for Climate Risk Analysis

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Publisher Correction: Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

Questions of bias in climate models

Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0

Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research

Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research

Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

Supplementary material to "Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)"

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios